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Over 21 NFL games since October 2025, Josh Allen has gone over the posted 1.5 passing touchdowns 10 times (48%), and over their last 10 they have done it 5 times (50%). They average 1.5 passing touchdowns across those 21 games. Their last 5 (1.4) are in line with that, so there is no recent move to read into. These are measured box-score results from Buffalo Bills games, not a projection, and on their own they say nothing about whether the posted price is worth taking.
Sunday, November 15, 1:00 PM ET, on the road against the New York Jets. Last logged game November 9, 6 days before.
| Line | All 21 | Last 10 | Last 5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 passing touchdowns | 17 of 21 (81%) | 9 of 10 (90%) | 5 of 5 (100%) |
| Over 1.5 passing touchdowns | 10 of 21 (48%) | 5 of 10 (50%) | 2 of 5 (40%) |
| Over 2.5 passing touchdowns | 5 of 21 (24%) | 2 of 10 (20%) | 0 of 5 (0%) |
These are common half-point lines measured against the logged games above, not the lines posted for Josh Allen right now. The live board at the top of this page carries those, and it updates through the day.
Josh Allen has averaged 1.4 passing touchdowns over their last 5, against 1.5 across all 21 logged games, no meaningful move either way.
Josh Allen's passing TDs vary moderately, a standard deviation of 1.1 around 1.5. That is an ordinary spread for this market.
| Window | Average |
|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 1.4 passing touchdowns |
| Last 10 games | 1.6 passing touchdowns |
| All 21 logged games | 1.5 passing touchdowns |
| Best in the log | 3 |
| Worst in the log | 0 |
| Home (8 games) | 1.6 passing touchdowns |
| Away (13 games) | 1.5 passing touchdowns |
Josh Allen's highest in this log is 3 passing touchdowns against the Detroit Lions on 2026-09-17, and the lowest is 0 against the Los Angeles Chargers on 2026-09-27. Both are single games, not a range to expect.
| Split | Over 1.5 passing touchdowns |
|---|---|
| At home | 4 of 8 (50%) |
| On the road | 6 of 13 (46%) |
Josh Allen has cleared 1.5 passing touchdowns at much the same rate home and away, 50% against 46%.
A split appears only where both sides have 5 games or more behind them.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Passing TDs |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-09 | Minnesota Vikings | Away | 1 |
| 2026-11-01 | Baltimore Ravens | Home | 2 |
| 2026-10-18 | Las Vegas Raiders | Away | 2 |
| 2026-10-12 | Los Angeles Rams | Away | 1 |
| 2026-10-04 | New England Patriots | Home | 1 |
| 2026-09-27 | Los Angeles Chargers | Home | 0 |
| 2026-09-17 | Detroit Lions | Home | 3 |
| 2026-09-13 | Houston Texans | Away | 2 |
| 2026-01-17 | Denver Broncos | Away | 3 |
| 2026-01-11 | Jacksonville Jaguars | Away | 1 |
Every passing TDs prop the books have posted for Josh Allen of the Buffalo Bills, with the NFL game log the number is drawn from, game by game and split by where and when they played.
Calculated by the ParlayBuilder Prop Engine.
Every figure on this page is counted from official NFL box scores, one row per game actually played. No projections, and a game the player missed is absent rather than scored as a zero. Where a hit rate is compared with the live price, it is first pulled toward that price in proportion to how thin the sample is, so three-for-three does not read here as a certainty.
Past performance does not predict future results, and Parlay Builder does not accept wagers, hold funds or settle bets. This is measured history and a price, and what you do with them is your decision.
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It loads live at the top of this page, with the best price across the major US sportsbooks beside it. It is deliberately not printed into the page itself: a line moves through the day, and a page that hard-coded one would keep telling you a number the book no longer offers.
The hit rate beside the line answers exactly that, measured against the exact line on offer over the games in the log below. The game count it is drawn from is printed next to it, because a rate without a denominator is not a measurement.
That depends entirely on the price, and this page will tell you when the answer is no. A prop only clears the research bar when its hit rate, pulled toward the price for a short record, sits ahead of the break-even the current price implies, with at least ten games behind the rate, a B grade or better and a price a book has refreshed recently. Most props on most nights clear none of that.
All Josh Allen props and hit rates · Every NFL passing TDs prop
How NFL prop markets behave, measured across the league
Odds and lines come from licensed data feeds and refresh on a schedule; hit rates and grades are Parlay Builder’s own calculations.