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Over 24 NFL games since October 2025, Matthew Stafford has gone over the posted 1.5 passing touchdowns 18 times (75%), and over their last 10 they have done it 6 times (60%). They average 2.4 passing touchdowns across those 24 games. Their last 5 average 2.0, 16% below their 2.4 over their last 24 games. Against the Arizona Cardinals in this log they have 3 games, averaging 3.0. These are measured box-score results from Los Angeles Rams games, not a projection, and on their own they say nothing about whether the posted price is worth taking.
Sunday, November 15, 4:05 PM ET, on the road against the Arizona Cardinals. Last logged game November 8, 7 days before.
| Line | All 24 | Last 10 | Last 5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 passing touchdowns | 21 of 24 (88%) | 8 of 10 (80%) | 5 of 5 (100%) |
| Over 1.5 passing touchdowns | 18 of 24 (75%) | 6 of 10 (60%) | 3 of 5 (60%) |
| Over 2.5 passing touchdowns | 12 of 24 (50%) | 4 of 10 (40%) | 2 of 5 (40%) |
| Over 3.5 passing touchdowns | 5 of 24 (21%) | 1 of 10 (10%) | 0 of 5 (0%) |
These are common half-point lines measured against the logged games above, not the lines posted for Matthew Stafford right now. The live board at the top of this page carries those, and it updates through the day.
Matthew Stafford has averaged 2.0 passing touchdowns over their last 5, 16% below their 2.4 across all 24 logged games.
Matthew Stafford's passing TDs vary moderately, a standard deviation of 1.3 around 2.4. That is an ordinary spread for this market.
| Window | Average |
|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 2.0 passing touchdowns |
| Last 10 games | 1.9 passing touchdowns |
| All 24 logged games | 2.4 passing touchdowns |
| Best in the log | 5 |
| Worst in the log | 0 |
| Home (10 games) | 2.5 passing touchdowns |
| Away (14 games) | 2.3 passing touchdowns |
Matthew Stafford's highest in this log is 5 passing touchdowns against the Jacksonville Jaguars on 2025-10-19, and the lowest is 0 against the Philadelphia Eagles on 2026-10-04. Both are single games, not a range to expect.
| Split | Over 2.5 passing touchdowns |
|---|---|
| At home | 5 of 10 (50%) |
| On the road | 7 of 14 (50%) |
Matthew Stafford has cleared 2.5 passing touchdowns at much the same rate home and away, 50% against 50%.
A split appears only where both sides have 5 games or more behind them.
Matthew Stafford has 3 logged games against the Arizona Cardinals, averaging 3.0 passing touchdowns with a high of 4. Most recent first, those games read 2, 4, 3. A handful of meetings is a very small sample and is shown for context rather than as a pattern.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Passing TDs |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-08 | Washington Commanders | Away | 1 |
| 2026-11-01 | Los Angeles Chargers | Home | 1 |
| 2026-10-25 | Las Vegas Raiders | Away | 3 |
| 2026-10-18 | Arizona Cardinals | Home | 2 |
| 2026-10-12 | Buffalo Bills | Home | 3 |
| 2026-10-04 | Philadelphia Eagles | Away | 0 |
| 2026-09-27 | Denver Broncos | Away | 2 |
| 2026-09-21 | New York Giants | Home | 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | San Francisco 49ers | Home | 0 |
| 2026-01-25 | Seattle Seahawks | Away | 3 |
Every passing TDs prop the books have posted for Matthew Stafford of the Los Angeles Rams, with the NFL game log the number is drawn from, game by game and split by where and when they played.
Calculated by the ParlayBuilder Prop Engine.
Every figure on this page is counted from official NFL box scores, one row per game actually played. No projections, and a game the player missed is absent rather than scored as a zero. Where a hit rate is compared with the live price, it is first pulled toward that price in proportion to how thin the sample is, so three-for-three does not read here as a certainty.
Past performance does not predict future results, and Parlay Builder does not accept wagers, hold funds or settle bets. This is measured history and a price, and what you do with them is your decision.
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It loads live at the top of this page, with the best price across the major US sportsbooks beside it. It is deliberately not printed into the page itself: a line moves through the day, and a page that hard-coded one would keep telling you a number the book no longer offers.
The hit rate beside the line answers exactly that, measured against the exact line on offer over the games in the log below. The game count it is drawn from is printed next to it, because a rate without a denominator is not a measurement.
That depends entirely on the price, and this page will tell you when the answer is no. A prop only clears the research bar when its hit rate, pulled toward the price for a short record, sits ahead of the break-even the current price implies, with at least ten games behind the rate, a B grade or better and a price a book has refreshed recently. Most props on most nights clear none of that.
All Matthew Stafford props and hit rates · Every NFL passing TDs prop
How NFL prop markets behave, measured across the league
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