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Over 12 NFL games since October 2025, Michael Penix Jr. has gone over the posted 19.5 completions 5 times (42%), and over their last 10 they have done it 3 times (30%). They average 17.7 completions across those 12 games. Their last 5 (18.2) are in line with that, so there is no recent move to read into. These are measured box-score results from Atlanta Falcons games, not a projection, and on their own they say nothing about whether the posted price is worth taking.
Sunday, November 15, 1:00 PM ET, at home against the Kansas City Chiefs. Last logged game November 8, 7 days before.
| Line | All 12 | Last 10 | Last 5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 12.5 completions | 10 of 12 (83%) | 8 of 10 (80%) | 4 of 5 (80%) |
| Over 15.5 completions | 8 of 12 (67%) | 6 of 10 (60%) | 4 of 5 (80%) |
| Over 18.5 completions | 7 of 12 (58%) | 5 of 10 (50%) | 4 of 5 (80%) |
| Over 20.5 completions | 3 of 12 (25%) | 2 of 10 (20%) | 1 of 5 (20%) |
| Over 21.5 completions | 2 of 12 (17%) | 2 of 10 (20%) | 1 of 5 (20%) |
These are common half-point lines measured against the logged games above, not the lines posted for Michael Penix Jr. right now. The live board at the top of this page carries those, and it updates through the day.
Michael Penix Jr. has averaged 18.2 completions over their last 5, against 17.7 across all 12 logged games, no meaningful move either way.
Michael Penix Jr.'s completions cluster tightly around it: most games land within 4.6 of 17.7. A narrow spread means the average is close to what a typical night actually looks like.
| Window | Average |
|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 18.2 completions |
| Last 10 games | 17.1 completions |
| All 12 logged games | 17.7 completions |
| Best in the log | 25 |
| Worst in the log | 8 |
| Home (6 games) | 19.3 completions |
| Away (6 games) | 16.0 completions |
Michael Penix Jr.'s highest in this log is 25 completions against the San Francisco 49ers on 2026-10-25, and the lowest is 8 against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on 2026-11-01. Both are single games, not a range to expect.
| Split | Over 18.5 completions |
|---|---|
| At home | 5 of 6 (83%) |
| On the road | 2 of 6 (33%) |
Michael Penix Jr. has cleared 18.5 completions 50 points more often at home, 83% in 6 home games against 33% in 6 away.
A split appears only where both sides have 5 games or more behind them.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Completions |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-08 | Cincinnati Bengals | Home | 20 |
| 2026-11-01 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Away | 8 |
| 2026-10-25 | San Francisco 49ers | Home | 25 |
| 2026-10-18 | Chicago Bears | Home | 19 |
| 2026-10-11 | Baltimore Ravens | Home | 19 |
| 2026-10-05 | New Orleans Saints | Away | 15 |
| 2026-09-24 | Green Bay Packers | Away | 18 |
| 2025-11-16 | Carolina Panthers | Home | 13 |
| 2025-11-09 | Indianapolis Colts | Away | 12 |
| 2025-11-02 | New England Patriots | Away | 22 |
Every completions prop the books have posted for Michael Penix Jr. of the Atlanta Falcons, with the NFL game log the number is drawn from, game by game and split by where and when they played.
Calculated by the ParlayBuilder Prop Engine.
Every figure on this page is counted from official NFL box scores, one row per game actually played. No projections, and a game the player missed is absent rather than scored as a zero. Where a hit rate is compared with the live price, it is first pulled toward that price in proportion to how thin the sample is, so three-for-three does not read here as a certainty.
Past performance does not predict future results, and Parlay Builder does not accept wagers, hold funds or settle bets. This is measured history and a price, and what you do with them is your decision.
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It loads live at the top of this page, with the best price across the major US sportsbooks beside it. It is deliberately not printed into the page itself: a line moves through the day, and a page that hard-coded one would keep telling you a number the book no longer offers.
The hit rate beside the line answers exactly that, measured against the exact line on offer over the games in the log below. The game count it is drawn from is printed next to it, because a rate without a denominator is not a measurement.
That depends entirely on the price, and this page will tell you when the answer is no. A prop only clears the research bar when its hit rate, pulled toward the price for a short record, sits ahead of the break-even the current price implies, with at least ten games behind the rate, a B grade or better and a price a book has refreshed recently. Most props on most nights clear none of that.
All Michael Penix Jr. props and hit rates · Every NFL completions prop
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