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23 NFL players have a completions prop posted for the next 3 days, and 23 of them carry at least 10 logged games here. Dak Prescott leads the measured field at 23.9 completions over 20 games, against a median of 20.4 across the priced field. That ordering is measured history, not tonight’s value — the live board above ranks the same players by price against that history, and the two routinely disagree.
Averages over each player's logged games, from official box scores. This is history, not a ranking of tonight’s props — the live board above is ordered by price against that history, and the two routinely disagree.
| Player | Team | Games | Average | Most balanced line | Hit rate there |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | Cowboys | 20 | 23.9 | Over 23.5 | 10 of 20 (50%) |
| Jared Goff | Lions | 20 | 23.5 | Over 23.5 | 11 of 20 (55%) |
| Jacoby Brissett | Cardinals | 17 | 23.4 | Over 22.5 | 9 of 17 (53%) |
| Matthew Stafford | Rams | 23 | 22.7 | Over 22.5 | 11 of 23 (48%) |
| Patrick Mahomes | Chiefs | 17 | 22.5 | Over 22.5 | 9 of 17 (53%) |
| Bo Nix | Broncos | 21 | 22.4 | Over 22.5 | 11 of 21 (52%) |
| Joe Burrow | Bengals | 11 | 22.4 | Over 24.5 | 6 of 11 (55%) |
| Tyler Shough | Saints | 14 | 22.3 | Over 23.5 | 7 of 14 (50%) |
| Brock Purdy | 49ers | 14 | 20.7 | Over 20.5 | 7 of 14 (50%) |
| Justin Herbert | Chargers | 20 | 20.6 | Over 19.5 | 10 of 20 (50%) |
| Daniel Jones | Colts | 16 | 20.4 | Over 21.5 | 8 of 16 (50%) |
| Josh Allen | Bills | 21 | 20.4 | Over 20.5 | 10 of 21 (48%) |
| C.J. Stroud | Texans | 19 | 20.3 | Over 21.5 | 10 of 19 (53%) |
| Jordan Love | Packers | 19 | 20.0 | Over 18.5 | 11 of 19 (58%) |
| Bryce Young | Panthers | 20 | 19.9 | Over 18.5 | 9 of 20 (45%) |
| Drake Maye | Patriots | 24 | 19.8 | Over 18.5 | 13 of 24 (54%) |
| Trevor Lawrence | Jaguars | 21 | 19.7 | Over 19.5 | 10 of 21 (48%) |
| Cam Ward | Titans | 20 | 18.9 | Over 19.5 | 11 of 20 (55%) |
| Sam Darnold | Seahawks | 22 | 18.7 | Over 18.5 | 11 of 22 (50%) |
| Jalen Hurts | Eagles | 20 | 18.5 | Over 16.5 | 11 of 20 (55%) |
| Across the field | Average |
|---|---|
| Lowest | 14.1 |
| Median | 20.4 |
| Highest | 23.9 |
The priced field runs from 14.1 to 23.9 completions a game, with the middle at 20.4 over 23 players.
| Line | Cleared | Rate |
|---|---|---|
| Over 17.5 | 294 of 417 | 71% |
| Over 20.5 | 211 of 417 | 51% |
| Over 23.5 | 125 of 417 | 30% |
Pooled across all 417 logged games behind those 23 players, not any one of them — a pooled rate is the field's, and an individual player's own ladder is on their page.
NFL completions props across the whole slate. 23 players currently have a completions line posted, and each is scored against their own game log at the exact line on offer, shrunk toward a league prior, then compared with the price. The table loads live so the lines and prices are the ones on offer now. Most of any board clears none of the research bar, and when that is true this page says so rather than ranking the least-bad options.
Calculated by the ParlayBuilder Prop Engine.
Every figure on this page is counted from official NFL box scores, one row per game actually played. No projections, and a game the player missed is absent rather than scored as a zero. Hit rates against the live board are shrunk toward a league prior in proportion to how thin the sample is, so three-for-three does not read here as a certainty.
Past performance does not predict future results, and Parlay Builder does not accept wagers, hold funds or settle bets. No locks and no guaranteed wins. This is measured history and a price, and what you do with them is your decision.
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Every completions prop on the slate is scored the same way: the player's own game log against the exact line on offer, shrunk for sample size, compared with the price, and the table on this page orders them by that estimate. It loads live, so it is the slate as it stands now rather than a saved list.
As the share of logged games in which the player finished above the exact line a book is offering, over the deepest window available, then shrunk toward a league prior. The shrinkage is why a three-for-three player does not top this table: a three-game denominator admits only four possible answers and none of them is a measurement.
Because props only exist once a book has priced the game, and between a slate finishing and the next being posted there is a real window with no completions lines at all. The page also refuses to pad itself: when nothing clears the research bar it says so rather than filling the space with the least-bad options.
No, not on its own. A prop that clears its line seven times in ten, at a price implying it should clear three times in four, loses money over the long run. The hit rate answers how often; the price answers what you are paid for it; only the two together say anything at all, and the sportsbook margin sits between them either way.
How NFL prop markets behave, measured across the league
Odds and lines come from licensed data feeds and refresh on a schedule; hit rates, edges and grades are Parlay Builder’s own calculations.