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Over 17 logged NFL games, Patrick Mahomes has gone over 22.5 completions 9 times (53%), and over their last 10 they have done it 5 times (50%). They average 22.5 completions across those 17 games. Their last 5 average 19.4, 14% below their 22.5 across the full log. These are measured box-score results from Kansas City Chiefs games, not a projection, and on their own they say nothing about whether tonight’s price is worth taking.
| Line | All 17 | Last 10 | Last 5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 16.5 completions | 12 of 17 (71%) | 6 of 10 (60%) | 2 of 5 (40%) |
| Over 22.5 completions | 9 of 17 (53%) | 5 of 10 (50%) | 1 of 5 (20%) |
| Over 25.5 completions | 5 of 17 (29%) | 3 of 10 (30%) | 1 of 5 (20%) |
These are common half-point lines measured against the logged games above, not the lines posted for Patrick Mahomes right now. The live board at the top of this page carries those, and it updates through the day.
Patrick Mahomes has averaged 19.4 completions over their last 5, 14% below their 22.5 across all 17 logged games.
Patrick Mahomes's completions clusters tightly around it — most games land within 5.5 of 22.5. A narrow spread means the average is close to what a typical night actually looks like.
| Window | Average |
|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 19.4 completions |
| Last 10 games | 21.8 completions |
| All 17 logged games | 22.5 completions |
| Best in the log | 32 |
| Worst in the log | 14 |
| Home (10 games) | 22.7 completions |
| Away (7 games) | 22.1 completions |
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Completions |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-27 | Miami Dolphins | Away | 20 |
| 2026-09-21 | Indianapolis Colts | Home | 32 |
| 2026-09-15 | Denver Broncos | Home | 15 |
| 2025-12-14 | Los Angeles Chargers | Away | 16 |
| 2025-12-08 | Houston Texans | Home | 14 |
| 2025-11-27 | Dallas Cowboys | Home | 23 |
| 2025-11-23 | Indianapolis Colts | Away | 29 |
| 2025-11-16 | Denver Broncos | Home | 29 |
| 2025-11-02 | Buffalo Bills | Away | 15 |
| 2025-10-28 | Washington Commanders | Home | 25 |
Patrick Mahomes of the Kansas City Chiefs in completions, measured from official NFL box scores rather than from anybody's projection. The table above is their hit rate at every threshold their own distribution supports, over three nested windows, each with its own denominator. Below it are the games themselves. There is no line and no price on this page because none is posted; when one is, it loads live above this text and this history is what it will be measured against.
Calculated by the ParlayBuilder Prop Engine.
Every figure on this page is counted from official NFL box scores, one row per game actually played. No projections, and a game the player missed is absent rather than scored as a zero. Hit rates against the live board are shrunk toward a league prior in proportion to how thin the sample is, so three-for-three does not read here as a certainty.
Past performance does not predict future results, and Parlay Builder does not accept wagers, hold funds or settle bets. No locks and no guaranteed wins. This is measured history and a price, and what you do with them is your decision.
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There is none posted at the moment, which is why this page shows thresholds drawn from their own game log instead. Those are facts about games already played and they do not go stale; a line does, which is why one is never printed into a cached page here.
The table above answers that at every threshold their log supports, over all their logged games and over the last ten and five, so a recent run and a full record can be read side by side rather than confused for each other.
Official box scores, one row per game played, loaded four times a day and rebuilt into this page daily. Games the player missed are absent rather than counted as zero, so the averages describe games they were actually in.
All Patrick Mahomes props and hit rates
How NFL prop markets behave, measured across the league
Odds and lines come from licensed data feeds and refresh on a schedule; hit rates, edges and grades are Parlay Builder’s own calculations.