This page is loading and it needs JavaScript. The written page below is served without it.
Over 17 NFL games since October 2025, Patrick Mahomes has gone over the posted 1.5 passing touchdowns 10 times (59%), and over their last 10 they have done it 6 times (60%). They average 1.6 passing touchdowns across those 17 games. Their last 5 average 1.4, 15% below their 1.6 over their last 17 games. These are measured box-score results from Kansas City Chiefs games, not a projection, and on their own they say nothing about whether the posted price is worth taking.
Sunday, November 15, 1:00 PM ET, on the road against the Atlanta Falcons. Last logged game November 8, 7 days before.
| Market | Logged games | Average | Most balanced line | Hit rate there |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pass Attempts | 17 | 34.2 pass attempts | Over 33.5 | 8 of 17 (47%) |
| Completions | 17 | 22.1 completions | Over 22.5 | 9 of 17 (53%) |
| Passing TDs | 17 | 1.6 passing touchdowns | Over 1.5 | 10 of 17 (59%) |
| Interceptions | 17 | 0.8 interceptions | Over 0.5 | 10 of 17 (59%) |
| Market | Line | All logged | Last 10 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pass Attempts | Over 30.5 | 11 of 17 (65%) | 5 of 10 (50%) |
| Pass Attempts | Over 33.5 | 8 of 17 (47%) | 2 of 10 (20%) |
| Pass Attempts | Over 34.5 | 5 of 17 (29%) | 2 of 10 (20%) |
| Completions | Over 16.5 | 12 of 17 (71%) | 6 of 10 (60%) |
| Completions | Over 22.5 | 9 of 17 (53%) | 4 of 10 (40%) |
| Completions | Over 25.5 | 5 of 17 (29%) | 2 of 10 (20%) |
| Passing TDs | Over 0.5 | 11 of 17 (65%) | 6 of 10 (60%) |
| Passing TDs | Over 1.5 | 10 of 17 (59%) | 6 of 10 (60%) |
| Passing TDs | Over 2.5 | 6 of 17 (35%) | 2 of 10 (20%) |
| Interceptions | Over 0.5 | 10 of 17 (59%) | 6 of 10 (60%) |
| Interceptions | Over 1.5 | 2 of 17 (12%) | 1 of 10 (10%) |
| Interceptions | Over 2.5 | 1 of 17 (6%) | 1 of 10 (10%) |
Every market Patrick Mahomes is currently priced in, on the same row as the game it came from. A dash means the box score carried no value in that market for that game, which is not the same as a zero.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Pass Attempts | Completions | Passing TDs | Interceptions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-08 | New York Jets | Home | 31 | 23 | 2 | 0 |
| 2026-11-01 | Denver Broncos | Away | 41 | 30 | 3 | 0 |
| 2026-10-25 | Seattle Seahawks | Away | 33 | 19 | 0 | 1 |
| 2026-10-18 | Los Angeles Chargers | Home | 30 | 23 | 0 | 1 |
| 2026-10-04 | Las Vegas Raiders | Away | 30 | 15 | 2 | 0 |
| 2026-09-27 | Miami Dolphins | Away | 24 | 20 | 2 | 1 |
| 2026-09-20 | Indianapolis Colts | Home | 47 | 32 | 3 | 0 |
| 2026-09-14 | Denver Broncos | Home | 27 | 15 | 2 | 1 |
Counted from the same 17 logged games as the tables above. Measured history, not a projection and not a read on tonight's price.
| Percentile | Passing TDs |
|---|---|
| Lowest logged game | 0 |
| 25th percentile | 0 |
| Median | 2 |
| 75th percentile | 3 |
| Highest logged game | 4 |
16 of 17 games (94%) landed between 0 and 3; 10 (59%) finished at or above the 2 median, and the spread from 0 to 4 is the whole range of the log. Nearest-rank, so every figure is a score Patrick Mahomes actually recorded.
| Month | Logged games | Average |
|---|---|---|
| October 2026 | 3 | 0.7 |
| September 2026 | 3 | 2.3 |
| November 2025 | 4 | 1.3 |
| October 2025 | 3 | 3 |
| Opponent | Logged games | Average | Best |
|---|---|---|---|
| Denver Broncos | 3 | 2 | 3 |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 2 | 2.5 | 3 |
| Indianapolis Colts | 2 | 1.5 | 3 |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Most-faced in this log is Denver Broncos, 3 games at 2, best of 3. Counts sit beside every average because two meetings is a low bar; opponents faced once are left out.
Against their own 2 median rather than a posted line, Patrick Mahomes's longest run at or above it is 4 games and the run open at the newest of the 17 is 2. Whether the bigger games cluster, not when the next one is.
| Market | Average | Spread | Reads as | Games |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| pass attempts | 34.2 | 6.5 | steady | 17 |
| completions | 22.1 | 5.7 | steady | 17 |
| passing TDs | 1.6 | 1.4 | volatile | 17 |
Their pass attempts is the steadiest of the 3 markets measured here, averaging 34.2 with a spread of 6.5; their passing TDs swings most, 1.6 with a spread of 1.4. Spread describes how far past games sat from the average. It is not a forecast of the next one.
Patrick Mahomes has gone over 33.5 pass attempts in 8 of 17 logged games (47%).
At home they average 34.1 over 10 games; away, 34.4 over 7.
Patrick Mahomes pass attempts: full game log, trend and hit rate by line
Patrick Mahomes has gone over 22.5 completions in 9 of 17 logged games (53%).
At home they average 22.5 over 10 games; away, 21.6 over 7.
Patrick Mahomes completions: full game log, trend and hit rate by line
Patrick Mahomes has gone over 1.5 passing touchdowns in 10 of 17 logged games (59%).
At home they average 1.6 over 10 games; away, 1.7 over 7.
Patrick Mahomes passing TDs: full game log, trend and hit rate by line
Patrick Mahomes has gone over 0.5 interceptions in 10 of 17 logged games (59%).
At home they average 0.9 over 10 games; away, 0.6 over 7.
Patrick Mahomes interceptions: full game log, trend and hit rate by line
Prop research for Patrick Mahomes of the Kansas City Chiefs. The books are currently pricing Pass Attempts, Completions, Passing TDs and Interceptions lines for Patrick Mahomes, and each one is scored the same way every prop on this site is: their own game log measured against the exact line on offer, then compared with the price after a short record is pulled toward that price, so a hot fortnight cannot pass for a gap over it. The game log and the splits below are measured history and are rebuilt daily; the lines and prices load live, because an NFL price printed into a page is wrong within the hour. None of it is a forecast of the next game.
Calculated by the ParlayBuilder Prop Engine.
Every figure on this page is counted from official NFL box scores, one row per game actually played. No projections, and a game the player missed is absent rather than scored as a zero. Where a hit rate is compared with the live price, it is first pulled toward that price in proportion to how thin the sample is, so three-for-three does not read here as a certainty.
Past performance does not predict future results, and Parlay Builder does not accept wagers, hold funds or settle bets. This is measured history and a price, and what you do with them is your decision.
You must be 21+ (or older, where your jurisdiction sets a higher age) to bet. If gambling stops being fun, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537) for free, confidential help.
Whatever the books have priced: currently Pass Attempts, Completions, Passing TDs and Interceptions. The board on this page loads live rather than from a saved snapshot, so it reflects what is actually on offer now, with the best posted price across the major US sportsbooks against each line.
It depends on the line, which is why this page shows a rate per prop rather than one number. Each is the share of logged games finishing above the exact line on offer, over the deepest window available, and pulled toward the price before it is compared with it, so a short sample cannot masquerade as a trend. The number of games behind every rate is printed beside it.
The home and away splits on this page are measured from the same game log, so you can see the gap rather than assume one. Read them with the sample sizes next to them: a split measured over a handful of games each way is a difference you cannot distinguish from noise, and this page prints the denominator so you can tell.
No one knows, and any NFL tool that says otherwise is selling you something. Every figure here is measured history against a current price, and history is not a forecast. Across roughly 96,000 graded props the model tracked the de-vigged consensus across five books to within the margin those books charge: historical testing showed calibration alone is not enough to overcome sportsbook pricing. What this page does is show you the sample behind every number in seconds.
How NFL prop markets behave, measured across the league
Odds and lines come from licensed data feeds and refresh on a schedule; hit rates and grades are Parlay Builder’s own calculations.