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Across 56 NFL players with at least 10 logged games in receiving yards, this page measures 760 games in total. The median player in that field averages 60.9 receiving yards. The line closest to a coin flip sits at 52.0 for the median of the 56 players whose distribution supports one — half the field is more often over it, half more often under. The deepest sample here is Jaxon Smith-Njigba, with 19 logged games. Of the 56 players whose spread can be measured, 4 cluster tightly around their average, 52 vary moderately and 0 swing widely. 55 of them have at least three games home and away, so the venue gap below is measured rather than assumed. Every figure is counted from official box scores and describes games already played. It is not a projection, and on its own it says nothing about whether any price on offer is worth taking.
Each player's own most balanced threshold — the half-point line he has finished above in closest to half his logged games — measured from his distribution rather than read off a book. Deepest sample first, not best to worst. The 40 deepest samples of 56 measured; the figures above this table are over all 56.
| Player | Club | Logged games | Average | Balanced line | Hit rate there |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | Seahawks | 19 | 109.1 receiving yards | Over 103.5 | 10 of 19 (53%) |
| Puka Nacua | Rams | 19 | 110.2 receiving yards | Over 91.5 | 10 of 19 (53%) |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | Lions | 18 | 89.4 receiving yards | Over 77.5 | 9 of 18 (50%) |
| Davante Adams | Rams | 18 | 55.6 receiving yards | Over 56.5 | 9 of 18 (50%) |
| Trey McBride | Cardinals | 18 | 74.1 receiving yards | Over 72.5 | 9 of 18 (50%) |
| Justin Jefferson | Vikings | 17 | 66.4 receiving yards | Over 61.5 | 9 of 17 (53%) |
| Keenan Allen | Colts | 17 | 46.8 receiving yards | Over 37.5 | 9 of 17 (53%) |
| Zay Flowers | Ravens | 17 | 79.3 receiving yards | Over 72.5 | 9 of 17 (53%) |
| Chris Olave | Saints | 16 | 80.5 receiving yards | Over 63.5 | 8 of 16 (50%) |
| Courtland Sutton | Broncos | 16 | 65.4 receiving yards | Over 61.5 | 9 of 16 (56%) |
| Ja'Marr Chase | Bengals | 16 | 88.3 receiving yards | Over 94.5 | 8 of 16 (50%) |
| Tetairoa McMillan | Panthers | 16 | 68.5 receiving yards | Over 68.5 | 8 of 16 (50%) |
| Tyler Warren | Colts | 16 | 47.8 receiving yards | Over 43.5 | 8 of 16 (50%) |
| DeVonta Smith | Eagles | 15 | 65.6 receiving yards | Over 53.5 | 7 of 15 (47%) |
| DJ Moore | Bills | 15 | 56.7 receiving yards | Over 52.5 | 8 of 15 (53%) |
| Emeka Egbuka | Buccaneers | 15 | 61.9 receiving yards | Over 42.5 | 8 of 15 (53%) |
| George Pickens | Cowboys | 15 | 90.7 receiving yards | Over 78.5 | 8 of 15 (53%) |
| Khalil Shakir | Bills | 15 | 56.4 receiving yards | Over 45.5 | 8 of 15 (53%) |
| Travis Kelce | Chiefs | 15 | 54.3 receiving yards | Over 48.5 | 8 of 15 (53%) |
| Wan'Dale Robinson | Titans | 15 | 65.2 receiving yards | Over 46.5 | 8 of 15 (53%) |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | 49ers | 14 | 47.2 receiving yards | Over 43.5 | 7 of 14 (50%) |
| DK Metcalf | Steelers | 14 | 59.9 receiving yards | Over 42.5 | 7 of 14 (50%) |
| Kyle Pitts | Falcons | 14 | 62.9 receiving yards | Over 58.5 | 7 of 14 (50%) |
| Ladd McConkey | Chargers | 14 | 57.6 receiving yards | Over 48.5 | 7 of 14 (50%) |
| Nico Collins | Texans | 14 | 72.6 receiving yards | Over 59.5 | 8 of 14 (57%) |
| Stefon Diggs | Commanders | 14 | 66.9 receiving yards | Over 55.5 | 7 of 14 (50%) |
| A.J. Brown | Eagles | 13 | 74.3 receiving yards | Over 68.5 | 7 of 13 (54%) |
| CeeDee Lamb | Cowboys | 13 | 85.9 receiving yards | Over 75.5 | 7 of 13 (54%) |
| Harold Fannin Jr. | Browns | 13 | 51.0 receiving yards | Over 43.5 | 7 of 13 (54%) |
| Jakobi Meyers | Jaguars | 13 | 53.2 receiving yards | Over 44.5 | 7 of 13 (54%) |
| Jauan Jennings | 49ers | 13 | 45.6 receiving yards | Over 39.5 | 7 of 13 (54%) |
| Jaylen Waddle | Dolphins | 13 | 66.8 receiving yards | Over 52.5 | 7 of 13 (54%) |
| Rashid Shaheed | Seahawks | 13 | 53.4 receiving yards | Over 42.5 | 7 of 13 (54%) |
| Rome Odunze | Bears | 13 | 57.6 receiving yards | Over 44.5 | 6 of 13 (46%) |
| Brian Thomas Jr. | Jaguars | 12 | 55.1 receiving yards | Over 49.5 | 6 of 12 (50%) |
| Dalton Schultz | Texans | 12 | 53.1 receiving yards | Over 51.5 | 6 of 12 (50%) |
| Elic Ayomanor | Titans | 12 | 34.0 receiving yards | Over 37.5 | 6 of 12 (50%) |
| Jameson Williams | Lions | 12 | 79.8 receiving yards | Over 70.5 | 6 of 12 (50%) |
| Michael Pittman | Colts | 12 | 58.8 receiving yards | Over 41.5 | 6 of 12 (50%) |
| Tee Higgins | Bengals | 12 | 63.3 receiving yards | Over 59.5 | 6 of 12 (50%) |
Standard deviation in the market’s own units, and the same figure as a share of the player’s average so it means the same thing in points as in passing yards. A narrow spread means the average is close to what a typical game actually looked like; it says nothing about what the next one will look like.
| Player | Club | Logged games | Average | Standard deviation | Spread as % of average |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juwan Johnson | Saints | 10 | 59.7 receiving yards | 15.4 | 26% |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | Seahawks | 19 | 109.1 receiving yards | 32.6 | 30% |
| CeeDee Lamb | Cowboys | 13 | 85.9 receiving yards | 27.2 | 32% |
| Khalil Shakir | Bills | 15 | 56.4 receiving yards | 18.5 | 33% |
| Jaylen Waddle | Dolphins | 13 | 66.8 receiving yards | 24.7 | 37% |
| Trey McBride | Cardinals | 18 | 74.1 receiving yards | 28.1 | 38% |
| Dalton Schultz | Texans | 12 | 53.1 receiving yards | 20.8 | 39% |
| Tetairoa McMillan | Panthers | 16 | 68.5 receiving yards | 26.4 | 39% |
| DJ Moore | Bills | 15 | 56.7 receiving yards | 23.0 | 40% |
| Parker Washington | Jaguars | 11 | 81.2 receiving yards | 32.4 | 40% |
The other end of the same measurement. A wide spread means the average describes the middle of a broad range rather than a typical night, which is worth knowing before reading anything into that average.
| Player | Club | Logged games | Average | Standard deviation | Spread as % of average |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tre Tucker | Raiders | 11 | 49.4 receiving yards | 34.3 | 69% |
| Wan'Dale Robinson | Titans | 15 | 65.2 receiving yards | 42.3 | 65% |
| Stefon Diggs | Commanders | 14 | 66.9 receiving yards | 42.8 | 64% |
| Emeka Egbuka | Buccaneers | 15 | 61.9 receiving yards | 38.9 | 63% |
| Michael Wilson | Cardinals | 11 | 79.3 receiving yards | 50.1 | 63% |
| DK Metcalf | Steelers | 14 | 59.9 receiving yards | 37.4 | 62% |
| DeVonta Smith | Eagles | 15 | 65.6 receiving yards | 40.3 | 61% |
| Dallas Goedert | Eagles | 10 | 50.6 receiving yards | 30.5 | 60% |
| Rome Odunze | Bears | 13 | 57.6 receiving yards | 32.8 | 57% |
| Colston Loveland | Bears | 11 | 66.6 receiving yards | 36.2 | 54% |
Both averages are over the games actually played at each venue, and the game count for each is in the cell beside it. A gap measured over a handful of games either way is one you cannot distinguish from noise — this table prints the denominators so you can tell which is which. Three games a side is the floor for appearing here at all.
| Player | Club | Home (games) | Away (games) | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Wilson | Cardinals | 56.8 (4) | 92.1 (7) | 35.3 away |
| Colston Loveland | Bears | 85.4 (5) | 51.0 (6) | 34.4 at home |
| A.J. Brown | Eagles | 56.3 (6) | 89.7 (7) | 33.4 away |
| Brock Bowers | Raiders | 45.3 (6) | 78.5 (4) | 33.2 away |
| Justin Jefferson | Vikings | 82.0 (8) | 52.6 (9) | 29.4 at home |
| Zay Flowers | Ravens | 66.3 (9) | 93.9 (8) | 27.6 away |
| Hunter Henry | Patriots | 47.5 (6) | 74.8 (5) | 27.3 away |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | Seahawks | 123.3 (9) | 96.2 (10) | 27.1 at home |
| Harold Fannin Jr. | Browns | 65.5 (6) | 38.6 (7) | 26.9 at home |
| CeeDee Lamb | Cowboys | 104.3 (4) | 77.8 (9) | 26.5 at home |
Last five logged games against the full log, reported only where the gap is more than a tenth of the player’s own average. It is a description of five games that have been played and it is not a forecast of the sixth.
| Player | Club | Last 5 | Full log | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Pitts | Falcons | 90.6 receiving yards | 62.9 over 14 | 44% above |
| Chris Olave | Saints | 112.8 receiving yards | 80.5 over 16 | 40% above |
| DJ Moore | Bills | 75.6 receiving yards | 56.7 over 15 | 33% above |
| Parker Washington | Jaguars | 107.4 receiving yards | 81.2 over 11 | 32% above |
| Colston Loveland | Bears | 81.6 receiving yards | 66.6 over 11 | 22% above |
| Zay Flowers | Ravens | 94.0 receiving yards | 79.3 over 17 | 19% above |
| A.J. Brown | Eagles | 84.0 receiving yards | 74.3 over 13 | 13% above |
| Michael Wilson | Cardinals | 88.0 receiving yards | 79.3 over 11 | 11% above |
| Jerry Jeudy | Browns | 49.2 receiving yards | 44.2 over 11 | 11% above |
The same comparison in the other direction, and the same caveat: five games is five games, and a run below a baseline is as often noise as it is a change.
| Player | Club | Last 5 | Full log | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Warren | Colts | 26.2 receiving yards | 47.8 over 16 | 45% below |
| Courtland Sutton | Broncos | 41.4 receiving yards | 65.4 over 16 | 37% below |
| Emeka Egbuka | Buccaneers | 40.8 receiving yards | 61.9 over 15 | 34% below |
| Rome Odunze | Bears | 38.0 receiving yards | 57.6 over 13 | 34% below |
| George Pickens | Cowboys | 61.2 receiving yards | 90.7 over 15 | 33% below |
| Stefon Diggs | Commanders | 45.8 receiving yards | 66.9 over 14 | 32% below |
| DeVonta Smith | Eagles | 45.4 receiving yards | 65.6 over 15 | 31% below |
| Tre Tucker | Raiders | 34.8 receiving yards | 49.4 over 11 | 30% below |
| Travis Kelce | Chiefs | 39.4 receiving yards | 54.3 over 15 | 27% below |
| Keenan Allen | Colts | 34.6 receiving yards | 46.8 over 17 | 26% below |
At the half-point threshold each player has finished above in about half their logged games. It is measured per player from their own distribution rather than read off a sportsbook, which is why it is on this page at all: a posted line moves through the day and this page is rebuilt once, so a number taken from a book would be wrong by morning.
No. Nothing here is ordered by how good a bet it is, and no price is quoted anywhere on the page. The tables are ordered by sample depth, by spread and by the size of a measured gap, because those are the things a game log can actually establish.
The count is printed beside every one of them. A player only appears once they have ten or more logged games in the market, and games they did not play are absent rather than counted as zero, so an average describes games they were actually in.
No. A trend here is a comparison between a player’s last five logged games and their full log, and it is reported only when the gap is large enough to be worth naming. It is a description of what has happened, and history is not a forecast.
What these tables are measuring, explained: how to read a hit rate and what its denominator hides, what an over/under line is and what it is not.
NFL player props and live odds
Odds and lines come from licensed data feeds and refresh on a schedule; hit rates, edges and grades are Parlay Builder’s own calculations.