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With no line posted, over 18 NFL games since October 2025, Baker Mayfield has gone over a balanced line of 194.5 passing yards 9 times (50%), and over their last 10 they have done it 6 times (60%). They average 185.1 passing yards across those 18 games. Their last 5 average 141.2, 24% below their 185.1 over their last 18 games. These are measured box-score results from Tampa Bay Buccaneers games, not a projection, and on their own they say nothing about whether the posted price is worth taking.
Sunday, November 22, 1:00 PM ET, on the road against the Detroit Lions. Last logged game November 8, 14 days before.
| Line | All 18 | Last 10 | Last 5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 64.5 passing yards | 15 of 18 (83%) | 8 of 10 (80%) | 3 of 5 (60%) |
| Over 145.5 passing yards | 13 of 18 (72%) | 7 of 10 (70%) | 3 of 5 (60%) |
| Over 194.5 passing yards | 9 of 18 (50%) | 6 of 10 (60%) | 2 of 5 (40%) |
| Over 228.5 passing yards | 5 of 18 (28%) | 3 of 10 (30%) | 1 of 5 (20%) |
| Over 256.5 passing yards | 3 of 18 (17%) | 2 of 10 (20%) | 0 of 5 (0%) |
These are common half-point lines measured against the logged games above, not the lines posted for Baker Mayfield right now. The live board at the top of this page carries those, and it updates through the day.
Baker Mayfield has averaged 141.2 passing yards over their last 5, 24% below their 185.1 across all 18 logged games.
Baker Mayfield's passing yards vary moderately, a standard deviation of 85.4 around 185.1. That is an ordinary spread for this market.
| Window | Average |
|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 141.2 passing yards |
| Last 10 games | 189.3 passing yards |
| All 18 logged games | 185.1 passing yards |
| Best in the log | 346 |
| Worst in the log | 0 |
| Home (9 games) | 191.6 passing yards |
| Away (9 games) | 178.7 passing yards |
Baker Mayfield's highest in this log is 346 passing yards against the Miami Dolphins on 2025-12-28, and the lowest is 0 against the Atlanta Falcons on 2026-11-01. Both are single games, not a range to expect.
| Split | Over 194.5 passing yards |
|---|---|
| At home | 5 of 9 (56%) |
| On the road | 4 of 9 (44%) |
Baker Mayfield has cleared 194.5 passing yards 12 points more often at home, 56% in 9 home games against 44% in 9 away.
A split appears only where both sides have 5 games or more behind them.
Baker Mayfield has 1 logged game against the Detroit Lions, averaging 228.0 passing yards with a high of 228. Most recent first, those games read 228. A handful of meetings is a very small sample and is shown for context rather than as a pattern.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Passing Yards |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-08 | Chicago Bears | Away | 243 |
| 2026-11-01 | Atlanta Falcons | Home | 0 |
| 2026-10-25 | Carolina Panthers | Away | 64 |
| 2026-09-27 | Minnesota Vikings | Home | 217 |
| 2026-09-20 | Cleveland Browns | Home | 182 |
| 2026-09-13 | Cincinnati Bengals | Away | 216 |
| 2026-01-04 | Carolina Panthers | Home | 203 |
| 2025-12-28 | Miami Dolphins | Away | 346 |
| 2025-12-21 | Carolina Panthers | Away | 145 |
| 2025-12-11 | Atlanta Falcons | Home | 277 |
Baker Mayfield of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in passing yards, measured from official NFL box scores rather than from anybody's projection. The table above is their hit rate at every threshold their own distribution supports, over three nested windows, each with its own denominator. Below it are the games themselves. No line or price is printed on this page; when the board carries one, it loads live above this text and this history is what it will be measured against.
Calculated by the ParlayBuilder Prop Engine.
Every figure on this page is counted from official NFL box scores, one row per game actually played. No projections, and a game the player missed is absent rather than scored as a zero. Where a hit rate is compared with the live price, it is first pulled toward that price in proportion to how thin the sample is, so three-for-three does not read here as a certainty.
Past performance does not predict future results, and Parlay Builder does not accept wagers, hold funds or settle bets. This is measured history and a price, and what you do with them is your decision.
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None is printed on this page, which is why this page shows thresholds drawn from their own game log instead. Those are facts about games already played and they do not go stale; a line does, which is why one is never printed into a cached page here.
The table above answers that at every threshold their log supports, over all their logged games and over the last ten and five, so a recent run and a full record can be read side by side rather than confused for each other.
Official box scores, one row per game played, loaded four times a day and rebuilt into this page daily. Games the player missed are absent rather than counted as zero, so the averages describe games they were actually in.
All Baker Mayfield props and hit rates
How NFL prop markets behave, measured across the league
Odds and lines come from licensed data feeds and refresh on a schedule; hit rates and grades are Parlay Builder’s own calculations.