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With no line posted, over 21 NFL games since October 2025, Cole Kmet has gone over a balanced line of 13.5 receiving yards 11 times (52%), and over their last 10 they have done it 4 times (40%). They average 16.6 receiving yards across those 21 games. Their last 5 average 10.4, 37% below their 16.6 over their last 21 games. These are measured box-score results from Chicago Bears games, not a projection, and on their own they say nothing about whether the posted price is worth taking.
| Market | Logged games | Average | Most balanced line | Hit rate there |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Receiving Yards | 21 | 16.6 receiving yards | Over 13.5 | 11 of 21 (52%) |
| Receptions | 21 | 1.7 receptions | Over 1.5 | 12 of 21 (57%) |
| Targets | 21 | 2.4 targets | Over 2.5 | 10 of 21 (48%) |
| Receiving TDs | 21 | 0.1 receiving touchdowns | Over 0.5 | 3 of 21 (14%) |
| Anytime Touchdown | 21 | 3 of 21 (14%) | No line, yes or no | 14% |
| Market | Line | All logged | Last 10 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Receiving Yards | Over 3.5 | 15 of 21 (71%) | 6 of 10 (60%) |
| Receiving Yards | Over 13.5 | 11 of 21 (52%) | 4 of 10 (40%) |
| Receiving Yards | Over 16.5 | 7 of 21 (33%) | 3 of 10 (30%) |
| Receptions | Over 1.5 | 12 of 21 (57%) | 6 of 10 (60%) |
| Receptions | Over 2.5 | 4 of 21 (19%) | 2 of 10 (20%) |
| Receptions | Over 3.5 | 1 of 21 (5%) | 0 of 10 (0%) |
| Targets | Over 1.5 | 17 of 21 (81%) | 8 of 10 (80%) |
| Targets | Over 2.5 | 10 of 21 (48%) | 4 of 10 (40%) |
| Targets | Over 3.5 | 2 of 21 (10%) | 0 of 10 (0%) |
| Receiving TDs | Over 0.5 | 3 of 21 (14%) | 2 of 10 (20%) |
Every market measured for Cole Kmet, on the same row as the game it came from. A dash means the box score carried no value in that market for that game, which is not the same as a zero.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Receiving Yards | Receptions | Targets | Receiving TDs | Anytime Touchdown |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-22 | New England Patriots | Home | 28 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026-10-18 | Atlanta Falcons | Away | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026-10-11 | Green Bay Packers | Away | 8 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026-10-04 | New York Jets | Home | 13 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026-09-28 | Philadelphia Eagles | Home | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026-09-20 | Minnesota Vikings | Home | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026-09-13 | Carolina Panthers | Away | 35 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 |
| 2026-01-18 | Los Angeles Rams | Home | 31 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 |
Counted from the same 21 logged games as the tables above. Measured history, not a projection and not a read on tonight's price.
| Percentile | Receiving Yards |
|---|---|
| Lowest logged game | 0 |
| 25th percentile | 3 |
| Median | 14 |
| 75th percentile | 28 |
| Highest logged game | 45 |
12 of 21 games (57%) landed between 3 and 28; 11 (52%) finished at or above the 14 median, and the spread from 0 to 45 is the whole range of the log. Nearest-rank, so every figure is a score Cole Kmet actually recorded.
| Month | Logged games | Average |
|---|---|---|
| October 2026 | 4 | 13 |
| September 2026 | 3 | 11.7 |
| January 2026 | 3 | 15.7 |
| December 2025 | 4 | 25 |
| November 2025 | 5 | 19.8 |
| Opponent | Logged games | Average | Best |
|---|---|---|---|
| Green Bay Packers | 4 | 16 | 42 |
| Minnesota Vikings | 2 | 22.5 | 45 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 2 | 18 | 36 |
Most-faced in this log is Green Bay Packers, 4 games at 16, best of 42. Counts sit beside every average because two meetings is a low bar; opponents faced once are left out.
Against their own 14 median rather than a posted line, Cole Kmet's longest run at or above it is 6 games and the run open at the newest of the 21 is 1. Whether the bigger games cluster, not when the next one is.
| Market | Average | Spread | Reads as | Games |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| targets | 2.4 | 1.0 | mixed | 21 |
| receptions | 1.7 | 1.2 | mixed | 21 |
| receiving yards | 16.6 | 14.4 | volatile | 21 |
Their targets is the steadiest of the 3 markets measured here, averaging 2.4 with a spread of 1.0; their receiving yards swings most, 16.6 with a spread of 14.4. Spread describes how far past games sat from the average. It is not a forecast of the next one.
Cole Kmet has gone over 13.5 receiving yards in 11 of 21 logged games (52%).
At home they average 12.8 over 12 games; away, 21.7 over 9.
Cole Kmet receiving yards: full game log, trend and hit rate by line
Cole Kmet has gone over 1.5 receptions in 12 of 21 logged games (57%).
At home they average 1.4 over 12 games; away, 2.1 over 9.
Cole Kmet receptions: full game log, trend and hit rate by line
Cole Kmet has gone over 2.5 targets in 10 of 21 logged games (48%).
At home they average 2.2 over 12 games; away, 2.8 over 9.
Cole Kmet targets: full game log, trend and hit rate by line
Cole Kmet has gone over 0.5 receiving touchdowns in 3 of 21 logged games (14%).
At home they average 0.1 over 12 games; away, 0.2 over 9.
Cole Kmet has a anytime touchdown in 3 of 21 logged games.
At home they have recorded one in 1 of 12 games; away, 2 of 9.
Cole Kmet anytime touchdown: full game log, trend and hit rate by line
Prop history for Cole Kmet of the Chicago Bears. What follows is the record in Receiving Yards, Receptions, Targets, Receiving TDs and Anytime Touchdown: how often they have finished above each line their own game log supports, what their average looks like at home and away, and how much they have moved lately against their own baseline. Every figure is counted from official NFL box scores, one row per game they actually played, and rebuilt daily. None of it is a forecast, and none of it is compared with a price. When the live board carries a line for this player, it appears at the top of this page.
Calculated by the ParlayBuilder Prop Engine.
Every figure on this page is counted from official NFL box scores, one row per game actually played. No projections, and a game the player missed is absent rather than scored as a zero. Where a hit rate is compared with the live price, it is first pulled toward that price in proportion to how thin the sample is, so three-for-three does not read here as a certainty.
Past performance does not predict future results, and Parlay Builder does not accept wagers, hold funds or settle bets. This is measured history and a price, and what you do with them is your decision.
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This page keeps the measured history. When the live board carries a line for Cole Kmet, it appears at the top of this page, and the address does not change, so a bookmark or a link keeps working.
How often they finished above each line their own distribution supports, over all their logged games and over the last ten and five, with the game count printed beside every rate. A percentage without a denominator is not a measurement, so none appears here without one.
No. It is a record of games that have been played, and it is not compared with any price. Past performance does not predict future results, and Parlay Builder does not accept wagers, hold funds or settle bets.
How NFL prop markets behave, measured across the league
Odds and lines come from licensed data feeds and refresh on a schedule; hit rates and grades are Parlay Builder’s own calculations.