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Over 20 NFL games since October 2025, Justin Herbert has gone over the posted 18.5 completions 12 times (60%), and over their last 10 they have done it 6 times (60%). They average 19.3 completions across those 20 games. Their last 5 (18.4) are in line with that, so there is no recent move to read into. These are measured box-score results from Los Angeles Chargers games, not a projection, and on their own they say nothing about whether the posted price is worth taking.
Monday, November 16, 8:15 PM ET, on the road against the Baltimore Ravens. Last logged game November 8, 8 days before.
| Line | All 20 | Last 10 | Last 5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 13.5 completions | 17 of 20 (85%) | 9 of 10 (90%) | 4 of 5 (80%) |
| Over 15.5 completions | 14 of 20 (70%) | 7 of 10 (70%) | 3 of 5 (60%) |
| Over 18.5 completions | 12 of 20 (60%) | 6 of 10 (60%) | 3 of 5 (60%) |
| Over 20.5 completions | 6 of 20 (30%) | 3 of 10 (30%) | 2 of 5 (40%) |
| Over 23.5 completions | 3 of 20 (15%) | 1 of 10 (10%) | 1 of 5 (20%) |
These are common half-point lines measured against the logged games above, not the lines posted for Justin Herbert right now. The live board at the top of this page carries those, and it updates through the day.
Justin Herbert has averaged 18.4 completions over their last 5, against 19.3 across all 20 logged games, no meaningful move either way.
Justin Herbert's completions cluster tightly around it: most games land within 5.9 of 19.3. A narrow spread means the average is close to what a typical night actually looks like.
| Window | Average |
|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 18.4 completions |
| Last 10 games | 18.4 completions |
| All 20 logged games | 19.3 completions |
| Best in the log | 37 |
| Worst in the log | 10 |
| Home (10 games) | 18.2 completions |
| Away (10 games) | 20.4 completions |
Justin Herbert's highest in this log is 37 completions against the Indianapolis Colts on 2025-10-19, and the lowest is 10 against the Jacksonville Jaguars on 2025-11-16. Both are single games, not a range to expect.
| Split | Over 18.5 completions |
|---|---|
| At home | 3 of 10 (30%) |
| On the road | 9 of 10 (90%) |
Justin Herbert has cleared 18.5 completions 60 points more often on the road, 30% in 10 home games against 90% in 10 away.
A split appears only where both sides have 5 games or more behind them.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Completions |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-08 | Houston Texans | Home | 13 |
| 2026-11-01 | Los Angeles Rams | Away | 24 |
| 2026-10-18 | Kansas City Chiefs | Away | 22 |
| 2026-10-11 | Denver Broncos | Home | 14 |
| 2026-10-04 | Seattle Seahawks | Away | 19 |
| 2026-09-27 | Buffalo Bills | Away | 20 |
| 2026-09-20 | Las Vegas Raiders | Home | 15 |
| 2026-09-13 | Arizona Cardinals | Home | 17 |
| 2026-01-12 | New England Patriots | Away | 19 |
| 2025-12-27 | Houston Texans | Home | 21 |
Every completions prop the books have posted for Justin Herbert of the Los Angeles Chargers, with the NFL game log the number is drawn from, game by game and split by where and when they played.
Calculated by the ParlayBuilder Prop Engine.
Every figure on this page is counted from official NFL box scores, one row per game actually played. No projections, and a game the player missed is absent rather than scored as a zero. Where a hit rate is compared with the live price, it is first pulled toward that price in proportion to how thin the sample is, so three-for-three does not read here as a certainty.
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It loads live at the top of this page, with the best price across the major US sportsbooks beside it. It is deliberately not printed into the page itself: a line moves through the day, and a page that hard-coded one would keep telling you a number the book no longer offers.
The hit rate beside the line answers exactly that, measured against the exact line on offer over the games in the log below. The game count it is drawn from is printed next to it, because a rate without a denominator is not a measurement.
That depends entirely on the price, and this page will tell you when the answer is no. A prop only clears the research bar when its hit rate, pulled toward the price for a short record, sits ahead of the break-even the current price implies, with at least ten games behind the rate, a B grade or better and a price a book has refreshed recently. Most props on most nights clear none of that.
All Justin Herbert props and hit rates · Every NFL completions prop
How NFL prop markets behave, measured across the league
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