This page is loading and it needs JavaScript. The written page below is served without it.
Over 20 NFL games since October 2025, Justin Herbert has gone over the posted 4.5 carries 12 times (60%), and over their last 10 they have done it 6 times (60%). They average 5.2 carries across those 20 games. Their last 5 average 4.4, 15% below their 5.2 over their last 20 games. These are measured box-score results from Los Angeles Chargers games, not a projection, and on their own they say nothing about whether the posted price is worth taking.
Monday, November 16, 8:15 PM ET, on the road against the Baltimore Ravens. Last logged game November 8, 8 days before.
| Line | All 20 | Last 10 | Last 5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 carries | 17 of 20 (85%) | 9 of 10 (90%) | 4 of 5 (80%) |
| Over 3.5 carries | 14 of 20 (70%) | 8 of 10 (80%) | 4 of 5 (80%) |
| Over 5.5 carries | 9 of 20 (45%) | 4 of 10 (40%) | 2 of 5 (40%) |
| Over 6.5 carries | 5 of 20 (25%) | 1 of 10 (10%) | 0 of 5 (0%) |
| Over 8.5 carries | 3 of 20 (15%) | 1 of 10 (10%) | 0 of 5 (0%) |
These are common half-point lines measured against the logged games above, not the lines posted for Justin Herbert right now. The live board at the top of this page carries those, and it updates through the day.
Justin Herbert has averaged 4.4 carries over their last 5, 15% below their 5.2 across all 20 logged games.
Justin Herbert's rush attempts vary moderately, a standard deviation of 2.6 around 5.2. That is an ordinary spread for this market.
| Window | Average |
|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 4.4 carries |
| Last 10 games | 5.0 carries |
| All 20 logged games | 5.2 carries |
| Best in the log | 10 |
| Worst in the log | 1 |
| Home (10 games) | 5.2 carries |
| Away (10 games) | 5.2 carries |
Justin Herbert's highest in this log is 10 carries against the New England Patriots on 2026-01-12, and the lowest is 1 against the Houston Texans on 2026-11-08. Both are single games, not a range to expect.
| Split | Over 5.5 carries |
|---|---|
| At home | 5 of 10 (50%) |
| On the road | 4 of 10 (40%) |
Justin Herbert has cleared 5.5 carries at much the same rate home and away, 50% against 40%.
A split appears only where both sides have 5 games or more behind them.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Rush Attempts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-08 | Houston Texans | Home | 1 |
| 2026-11-01 | Los Angeles Rams | Away | 4 |
| 2026-10-18 | Kansas City Chiefs | Away | 5 |
| 2026-10-11 | Denver Broncos | Home | 6 |
| 2026-10-04 | Seattle Seahawks | Away | 6 |
| 2026-09-27 | Buffalo Bills | Away | 4 |
| 2026-09-20 | Las Vegas Raiders | Home | 3 |
| 2026-09-13 | Arizona Cardinals | Home | 5 |
| 2026-01-12 | New England Patriots | Away | 10 |
| 2025-12-27 | Houston Texans | Home | 6 |
Every rush attempts prop the books have posted for Justin Herbert of the Los Angeles Chargers, with the NFL game log the number is drawn from, game by game and split by where and when they played.
Calculated by the ParlayBuilder Prop Engine.
Every figure on this page is counted from official NFL box scores, one row per game actually played. No projections, and a game the player missed is absent rather than scored as a zero. Where a hit rate is compared with the live price, it is first pulled toward that price in proportion to how thin the sample is, so three-for-three does not read here as a certainty.
Past performance does not predict future results, and Parlay Builder does not accept wagers, hold funds or settle bets. This is measured history and a price, and what you do with them is your decision.
You must be 21+ (or older, where your jurisdiction sets a higher age) to bet. If gambling stops being fun, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537) for free, confidential help.
It loads live at the top of this page, with the best price across the major US sportsbooks beside it. It is deliberately not printed into the page itself: a line moves through the day, and a page that hard-coded one would keep telling you a number the book no longer offers.
The hit rate beside the line answers exactly that, measured against the exact line on offer over the games in the log below. The game count it is drawn from is printed next to it, because a rate without a denominator is not a measurement.
That depends entirely on the price, and this page will tell you when the answer is no. A prop only clears the research bar when its hit rate, pulled toward the price for a short record, sits ahead of the break-even the current price implies, with at least ten games behind the rate, a B grade or better and a price a book has refreshed recently. Most props on most nights clear none of that.
All Justin Herbert props and hit rates · Every NFL rush attempts prop
How NFL prop markets behave, measured across the league
Odds and lines come from licensed data feeds and refresh on a schedule; hit rates and grades are Parlay Builder’s own calculations.