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Across 133 NFL players with at least 10 logged games in receiving TDs, this page measures 2434 games in total. The median player in that field averages 0.3 receiving touchdowns. The line closest to a coin flip sits at 0.5 for the median of the 133 players whose distribution supports one. Half the field is more often over it, half more often under. The deepest sample here is DeMario Douglas, with 25 logged games. 133 of them have at least three games home and away, so the venue gap below is measured rather than assumed. Every figure is counted from official box scores and describes games already played. It is not a projection, and on its own it says nothing about whether any price on offer is worth taking.
Each player's own most balanced threshold: the half-point line he has finished above in closest to half his logged games, measured from his distribution rather than read off a book. Deepest sample first, not best to worst. The 40 deepest samples of 133 measured; the figures above this table are over all 133.
| Player | Club | Logged games | Average | Balanced line | Hit rate there |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeMario Douglas | Patriots | 25 | 0.3 receiving touchdowns | Over 0.5 | 6 of 25 (24%) |
| Hunter Henry | Patriots | 25 | 0.3 receiving touchdowns | Over 0.5 | 7 of 25 (28%) |
| AJ Barner | Seahawks | 24 | 0.2 receiving touchdowns | Over 0.5 | 4 of 24 (17%) |
| Colston Loveland | Bears | 24 | 0.3 receiving touchdowns | Over 0.5 | 7 of 24 (29%) |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | Seahawks | 24 | 0.8 receiving touchdowns | Over 0.5 | 14 of 24 (58%) |
| Kyren Williams | Rams | 24 | 0.1 receiving touchdowns | Over 0.5 | 3 of 24 (13%) |
| Stefon Diggs | Commanders | 24 | 0.5 receiving touchdowns | Over 0.5 | 10 of 24 (42%) |
| Cooper Kupp | Seahawks | 23 | 0.2 receiving touchdowns | Over 0.5 | 5 of 23 (22%) |
| Courtland Sutton | Broncos | 23 | 0.3 receiving touchdowns | Over 0.5 | 7 of 23 (30%) |
| Kenneth Walker III | Chiefs | 23 | 0.2 receiving touchdowns | Over 0.5 | 3 of 23 (13%) |
| Kenny Gainwell | Buccaneers | 23 | 0.2 receiving touchdowns | Over 0.5 | 3 of 23 (13%) |
| Bijan Robinson | Falcons | 22 | 0.2 receiving touchdowns | Over 0.5 | 4 of 22 (18%) |
| Christian McCaffrey | 49ers | 22 | 0.3 receiving touchdowns | Over 0.5 | 5 of 22 (23%) |
| Dalton Schultz | Texans | 22 | 0.1 receiving touchdowns | Over 0.5 | 3 of 22 (14%) |
| Dawson Knox | Bills | 22 | 0.2 receiving touchdowns | Over 0.5 | 4 of 22 (18%) |
| Kyle Pitts | Falcons | 22 | 0.4 receiving touchdowns | Over 0.5 | 5 of 22 (23%) |
| Luther Burden III | Bears | 22 | 0.2 receiving touchdowns | Over 0.5 | 5 of 22 (23%) |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | Patriots | 22 | 0.2 receiving touchdowns | Over 0.5 | 5 of 22 (23%) |
| Ashton Jeanty | Raiders | 21 | 0.3 receiving touchdowns | Over 0.5 | 5 of 21 (24%) |
| Colby Parkinson | Rams | 21 | 0.5 receiving touchdowns | Over 0.5 | 8 of 21 (38%) |
| Cole Kmet | Bears | 21 | 0.1 receiving touchdowns | Over 0.5 | 3 of 21 (14%) |
| DJ Moore | Bills | 21 | 0.4 receiving touchdowns | Over 0.5 | 7 of 21 (33%) |
| Kayshon Boutte | Texans | 21 | 0.4 receiving touchdowns | Over 0.5 | 6 of 21 (29%) |
| Khalil Shakir | Bills | 21 | 0.1 receiving touchdowns | Over 0.5 | 3 of 21 (14%) |
| Kyle Williams | Patriots | 21 | 0.2 receiving touchdowns | Over 0.5 | 5 of 21 (24%) |
| Mark Andrews | Ravens | 21 | 0.2 receiving touchdowns | Over 0.5 | 3 of 21 (14%) |
| Michael Wilson | Cardinals | 21 | 0.4 receiving touchdowns | Over 0.5 | 7 of 21 (33%) |
| Oronde Gadsden | Chargers | 21 | 0.2 receiving touchdowns | Over 0.5 | 4 of 21 (19%) |
| Pat Freiermuth | Steelers | 21 | 0.4 receiving touchdowns | Over 0.5 | 6 of 21 (29%) |
| Puka Nacua | Rams | 21 | 0.7 receiving touchdowns | Over 0.5 | 12 of 21 (57%) |
| Tetairoa McMillan | Panthers | 21 | 0.5 receiving touchdowns | Over 0.5 | 7 of 21 (33%) |
| Tre Tucker | Raiders | 21 | 0.2 receiving touchdowns | Over 0.5 | 4 of 21 (19%) |
| Trey McBride | Cardinals | 21 | 0.7 receiving touchdowns | Over 0.5 | 13 of 21 (62%) |
| Xavier Hutchinson | Texans | 21 | 0.1 receiving touchdowns | Over 0.5 | 3 of 21 (14%) |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | Lions | 20 | 0.5 receiving touchdowns | Over 0.5 | 7 of 20 (35%) |
| CeeDee Lamb | Cowboys | 20 | 0.5 receiving touchdowns | Over 0.5 | 8 of 20 (40%) |
| Chase Brown | Bengals | 20 | 0.3 receiving touchdowns | Over 0.5 | 4 of 20 (20%) |
| Christian Watson | Packers | 20 | 0.7 receiving touchdowns | Over 0.5 | 10 of 20 (50%) |
| Chuba Hubbard | Panthers | 20 | 0.1 receiving touchdowns | Over 0.5 | 3 of 20 (15%) |
| DK Metcalf | Steelers | 20 | 0.2 receiving touchdowns | Over 0.5 | 4 of 20 (20%) |
Both averages are over the games actually played at each venue, and the game count for each is in the cell beside it. A gap measured over a handful of games either way is one you cannot distinguish from noise. This table prints the denominators so you can tell which is which. Three games a side is the floor for appearing here at all.
| Player | Club | Home (games) | Away (games) | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cody White | Raiders | 0.0 (5) | 0.8 (5) | 0.8 away |
| Harold Fannin Jr. | Browns | 0.8 (9) | 0.2 (11) | 0.6 at home |
| Dallas Goedert | Eagles | 0.8 (9) | 0.2 (9) | 0.6 at home |
| Mike Evans | 49ers | 0.2 (6) | 0.8 (5) | 0.6 away |
| DJ Moore | Bills | 0.7 (12) | 0.1 (9) | 0.6 at home |
| Colby Parkinson | Rams | 0.8 (9) | 0.3 (12) | 0.5 at home |
| Troy Franklin | Broncos | 0.5 (11) | 0.0 (9) | 0.5 at home |
| Chris Olave | Saints | 0.3 (10) | 0.8 (9) | 0.5 away |
| Jayden Higgins | Texans | 0.6 (7) | 0.1 (7) | 0.5 at home |
| Sam LaPorta | Lions | 0.2 (6) | 0.7 (6) | 0.5 away |
Last five logged games against the full log, reported only where the gap is more than a tenth of the player’s own average. It is a description of five games that have been played and it is not a forecast of the sixth.
| Player | Club | Last 5 | Full log | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeMario Douglas | Patriots | 0.8 receiving touchdowns | 0.3 over 25 | 186% above |
| Tommy Tremble | Panthers | 0.6 receiving touchdowns | 0.2 over 19 | 185% above |
| Bhayshul Tuten | Jaguars | 0.6 receiving touchdowns | 0.2 over 19 | 185% above |
| Darnell Washington | Steelers | 0.6 receiving touchdowns | 0.2 over 19 | 185% above |
| Xavier Hutchinson | Texans | 0.4 receiving touchdowns | 0.1 over 21 | 180% above |
| Luther Burden III | Bears | 0.6 receiving touchdowns | 0.2 over 22 | 164% above |
| Jaylin Noel | Texans | 0.4 receiving touchdowns | 0.2 over 19 | 153% above |
| Tre Tucker | Raiders | 0.6 receiving touchdowns | 0.2 over 21 | 152% above |
| Isaiah Likely | Giants | 1.0 receiving touchdowns | 0.4 over 19 | 138% above |
| Kenneth Walker III | Chiefs | 0.4 receiving touchdowns | 0.2 over 23 | 130% above |
The same comparison in the other direction, and the same caveat: five games is five games, and a run below a baseline is as often noise as it is a change.
| Player | Club | Last 5 | Full log | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyren Williams | Rams | 0.0 receiving touchdowns | 0.1 over 24 | 100% below |
| Kenny Gainwell | Buccaneers | 0.0 receiving touchdowns | 0.2 over 23 | 100% below |
| Dawson Knox | Bills | 0.0 receiving touchdowns | 0.2 over 22 | 100% below |
| Bijan Robinson | Falcons | 0.0 receiving touchdowns | 0.2 over 22 | 100% below |
| Dalton Schultz | Texans | 0.0 receiving touchdowns | 0.1 over 22 | 100% below |
| Oronde Gadsden | Chargers | 0.0 receiving touchdowns | 0.2 over 21 | 100% below |
| Mark Andrews | Ravens | 0.0 receiving touchdowns | 0.2 over 21 | 100% below |
| Cole Kmet | Bears | 0.0 receiving touchdowns | 0.1 over 21 | 100% below |
| Chase Brown | Bengals | 0.0 receiving touchdowns | 0.3 over 20 | 100% below |
| Chuba Hubbard | Panthers | 0.0 receiving touchdowns | 0.1 over 20 | 100% below |
At the half-point threshold each player has finished above in about half their logged games. It is measured per player from their own distribution rather than read off a sportsbook, which is why it is on this page at all: a posted line moves through the day and this page is rebuilt once, so a number taken from a book would be wrong by morning.
No. Nothing here is ordered by how good a bet it is, and no price is quoted anywhere on the page. The tables are ordered by sample depth, by spread and by the size of a measured gap, because those are the things a game log can actually establish.
The count is printed beside every one of them. A player only appears once they have ten or more logged games in the market, and games they did not play are absent rather than counted as zero, so an average describes games they were actually in.
No. A trend here is a comparison between a player’s last five logged games and their full log, and it is reported only when the gap is large enough to be worth naming. It is a description of what has happened, and history is not a forecast.
What these tables are measuring, explained: how to read a hit rate and what its denominator hides, what an over/under line is and what it is not.
NFL player props and live odds
Odds and lines come from licensed data feeds and refresh on a schedule; hit rates and grades are Parlay Builder’s own calculations.