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Across 49 NFL players with at least 10 logged games in receiving TDs, this page measures 678 games in total. The median player in that field averages 0.5 receiving touchdowns. The line closest to a coin flip sits at 0.5 for the median of the 49 players whose distribution supports one — half the field is more often over it, half more often under. The deepest sample here is Jaxon Smith-Njigba, with 19 logged games. 48 of them have at least three games home and away, so the venue gap below is measured rather than assumed. Every figure is counted from official box scores and describes games already played. It is not a projection, and on its own it says nothing about whether any price on offer is worth taking.
Each player's own most balanced threshold — the half-point line he has finished above in closest to half his logged games — measured from his distribution rather than read off a book. Deepest sample first, not best to worst. The 40 deepest samples of 49 measured; the figures above this table are over all 49.
| Player | Club | Logged games | Average | Balanced line | Hit rate there |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | Seahawks | 19 | 0.6 receiving touchdowns | Over 0.5 | 10 of 19 (53%) |
| Puka Nacua | Rams | 19 | 0.6 receiving touchdowns | Over 0.5 | 10 of 19 (53%) |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | Lions | 18 | 0.8 receiving touchdowns | Over 0.5 | 9 of 18 (50%) |
| Davante Adams | Rams | 18 | 0.8 receiving touchdowns | Over 0.5 | 10 of 18 (56%) |
| Trey McBride | Cardinals | 18 | 0.7 receiving touchdowns | Over 0.5 | 10 of 18 (56%) |
| Justin Jefferson | Vikings | 17 | 0.2 receiving touchdowns | Over 0.5 | 3 of 17 (18%) |
| Keenan Allen | Colts | 17 | 0.2 receiving touchdowns | Over 0.5 | 4 of 17 (24%) |
| Zay Flowers | Ravens | 17 | 0.4 receiving touchdowns | Over 0.5 | 5 of 17 (29%) |
| Chris Olave | Saints | 16 | 0.6 receiving touchdowns | Over 0.5 | 7 of 16 (44%) |
| Courtland Sutton | Broncos | 16 | 0.5 receiving touchdowns | Over 0.5 | 8 of 16 (50%) |
| Ja'Marr Chase | Bengals | 16 | 0.5 receiving touchdowns | Over 0.5 | 6 of 16 (38%) |
| Tetairoa McMillan | Panthers | 16 | 0.4 receiving touchdowns | Over 0.5 | 4 of 16 (25%) |
| Tyler Warren | Colts | 16 | 0.2 receiving touchdowns | Over 0.5 | 3 of 16 (19%) |
| DeVonta Smith | Eagles | 15 | 0.3 receiving touchdowns | Over 0.5 | 4 of 15 (27%) |
| DJ Moore | Bills | 15 | 0.6 receiving touchdowns | Over 0.5 | 7 of 15 (47%) |
| Emeka Egbuka | Buccaneers | 15 | 0.4 receiving touchdowns | Over 0.5 | 5 of 15 (33%) |
| George Pickens | Cowboys | 15 | 0.5 receiving touchdowns | Over 0.5 | 7 of 15 (47%) |
| Travis Kelce | Chiefs | 15 | 0.3 receiving touchdowns | Over 0.5 | 4 of 15 (27%) |
| Wan'Dale Robinson | Titans | 15 | 0.3 receiving touchdowns | Over 0.5 | 4 of 15 (27%) |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | 49ers | 14 | 0.4 receiving touchdowns | Over 0.5 | 6 of 14 (43%) |
| DK Metcalf | Steelers | 14 | 0.3 receiving touchdowns | Over 0.5 | 4 of 14 (29%) |
| Kyle Pitts | Falcons | 14 | 0.4 receiving touchdowns | Over 0.5 | 3 of 14 (21%) |
| Ladd McConkey | Chargers | 14 | 0.5 receiving touchdowns | Over 0.5 | 7 of 14 (50%) |
| Nico Collins | Texans | 14 | 0.4 receiving touchdowns | Over 0.5 | 5 of 14 (36%) |
| Stefon Diggs | Commanders | 14 | 0.4 receiving touchdowns | Over 0.5 | 5 of 14 (36%) |
| A.J. Brown | Eagles | 13 | 0.5 receiving touchdowns | Over 0.5 | 4 of 13 (31%) |
| CeeDee Lamb | Cowboys | 13 | 0.3 receiving touchdowns | Over 0.5 | 4 of 13 (31%) |
| Harold Fannin Jr. | Browns | 13 | 0.3 receiving touchdowns | Over 0.5 | 4 of 13 (31%) |
| Jakobi Meyers | Jaguars | 13 | 0.2 receiving touchdowns | Over 0.5 | 3 of 13 (23%) |
| Jauan Jennings | 49ers | 13 | 0.6 receiving touchdowns | Over 0.5 | 7 of 13 (54%) |
| Jaylen Waddle | Dolphins | 13 | 0.5 receiving touchdowns | Over 0.5 | 6 of 13 (46%) |
| Rome Odunze | Bears | 13 | 0.5 receiving touchdowns | Over 0.5 | 5 of 13 (38%) |
| Dalton Schultz | Texans | 12 | 0.3 receiving touchdowns | Over 0.5 | 3 of 12 (25%) |
| Elic Ayomanor | Titans | 12 | 0.3 receiving touchdowns | Over 0.5 | 3 of 12 (25%) |
| Jameson Williams | Lions | 12 | 0.5 receiving touchdowns | Over 0.5 | 6 of 12 (50%) |
| Michael Pittman | Colts | 12 | 0.6 receiving touchdowns | Over 0.5 | 7 of 12 (58%) |
| Tee Higgins | Bengals | 12 | 0.8 receiving touchdowns | Over 0.5 | 7 of 12 (58%) |
| Alec Pierce | Colts | 11 | 0.4 receiving touchdowns | Over 0.5 | 3 of 11 (27%) |
| Colston Loveland | Bears | 11 | 0.5 receiving touchdowns | Over 0.5 | 5 of 11 (45%) |
| Drake London | Falcons | 11 | 0.6 receiving touchdowns | Over 0.5 | 5 of 11 (45%) |
Both averages are over the games actually played at each venue, and the game count for each is in the cell beside it. A gap measured over a handful of games either way is one you cannot distinguish from noise — this table prints the denominators so you can tell which is which. Three games a side is the floor for appearing here at all.
| Player | Club | Home (games) | Away (games) | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Pitts | Falcons | 0.0 (9) | 1.0 (5) | 1.0 away |
| A.J. Brown | Eagles | 0.0 (6) | 0.9 (7) | 0.9 away |
| Zay Flowers | Ravens | 0.0 (9) | 0.8 (8) | 0.8 away |
| Brock Bowers | Raiders | 0.2 (6) | 1.0 (4) | 0.8 away |
| Tetairoa McMillan | Panthers | 0.7 (9) | 0.0 (7) | 0.7 at home |
| Drake London | Falcons | 1.0 (5) | 0.3 (6) | 0.7 at home |
| Troy Franklin | Broncos | 0.8 (6) | 0.2 (5) | 0.6 at home |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | Lions | 1.1 (7) | 0.6 (11) | 0.5 at home |
| Jauan Jennings | 49ers | 0.3 (4) | 0.8 (9) | 0.5 away |
| Trey McBride | Cardinals | 0.9 (7) | 0.5 (11) | 0.4 at home |
Last five logged games against the full log, reported only where the gap is more than a tenth of the player’s own average. It is a description of five games that have been played and it is not a forecast of the sixth.
| Player | Club | Last 5 | Full log | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zay Flowers | Ravens | 1.0 receiving touchdowns | 0.4 over 17 | 183% above |
| Kyle Pitts | Falcons | 0.8 receiving touchdowns | 0.4 over 14 | 124% above |
| Michael Wilson | Cardinals | 1.0 receiving touchdowns | 0.5 over 11 | 120% above |
| DJ Moore | Bills | 1.2 receiving touchdowns | 0.6 over 15 | 100% above |
| Harold Fannin Jr. | Browns | 0.6 receiving touchdowns | 0.3 over 13 | 95% above |
| Justin Jefferson | Vikings | 0.4 receiving touchdowns | 0.2 over 17 | 70% above |
| Stefon Diggs | Commanders | 0.6 receiving touchdowns | 0.4 over 14 | 68% above |
| Alec Pierce | Colts | 0.6 receiving touchdowns | 0.4 over 11 | 65% above |
| Ladd McConkey | Chargers | 0.8 receiving touchdowns | 0.5 over 14 | 60% above |
| Dalton Schultz | Texans | 0.4 receiving touchdowns | 0.3 over 12 | 60% above |
The same comparison in the other direction, and the same caveat: five games is five games, and a run below a baseline is as often noise as it is a change.
| Player | Club | Last 5 | Full log | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keenan Allen | Colts | 0.0 receiving touchdowns | 0.2 over 17 | 100% below |
| Travis Kelce | Chiefs | 0.0 receiving touchdowns | 0.3 over 15 | 100% below |
| Emeka Egbuka | Buccaneers | 0.0 receiving touchdowns | 0.4 over 15 | 100% below |
| DK Metcalf | Steelers | 0.0 receiving touchdowns | 0.3 over 14 | 100% below |
| Rome Odunze | Bears | 0.0 receiving touchdowns | 0.5 over 13 | 100% below |
| Davante Adams | Rams | 0.2 receiving touchdowns | 0.8 over 18 | 76% below |
| Quentin Johnston | Chargers | 0.2 receiving touchdowns | 0.6 over 11 | 69% below |
| Michael Pittman | Colts | 0.2 receiving touchdowns | 0.6 over 12 | 66% below |
| George Pickens | Cowboys | 0.2 receiving touchdowns | 0.5 over 15 | 63% below |
| Jake Ferguson | Cowboys | 0.2 receiving touchdowns | 0.5 over 11 | 63% below |
At the half-point threshold each player has finished above in about half their logged games. It is measured per player from their own distribution rather than read off a sportsbook, which is why it is on this page at all: a posted line moves through the day and this page is rebuilt once, so a number taken from a book would be wrong by morning.
No. Nothing here is ordered by how good a bet it is, and no price is quoted anywhere on the page. The tables are ordered by sample depth, by spread and by the size of a measured gap, because those are the things a game log can actually establish.
The count is printed beside every one of them. A player only appears once they have ten or more logged games in the market, and games they did not play are absent rather than counted as zero, so an average describes games they were actually in.
No. A trend here is a comparison between a player’s last five logged games and their full log, and it is reported only when the gap is large enough to be worth naming. It is a description of what has happened, and history is not a forecast.
What these tables are measuring, explained: how to read a hit rate and what its denominator hides, what an over/under line is and what it is not.
NFL player props and live odds
Odds and lines come from licensed data feeds and refresh on a schedule; hit rates, edges and grades are Parlay Builder’s own calculations.