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Over 12 logged NFL games, Marcus Mariota has gone over 1.5 passing touchdowns 4 times (33%), and over their last 10 they have done it 3 times (30%). They average 1.2 passing touchdowns across those 12 games. Their last 5 average 1.0, 14% below their 1.2 across the full log. These are measured box-score results from Washington Commanders games, not a projection, and on their own they say nothing about whether tonight’s price is worth taking.
| Line | All 12 | Last 10 | Last 5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 passing touchdowns | 9 of 12 (75%) | 7 of 10 (70%) | 3 of 5 (60%) |
| Over 1.5 passing touchdowns | 4 of 12 (33%) | 3 of 10 (30%) | 1 of 5 (20%) |
| Over 2.5 passing touchdowns | 1 of 12 (8%) | 1 of 10 (10%) | 1 of 5 (20%) |
These are common half-point lines measured against the logged games above, not the lines posted for Marcus Mariota right now. The live board at the top of this page carries those, and it updates through the day.
Marcus Mariota has averaged 1.0 passing touchdowns over their last 5, 14% below their 1.2 across all 12 logged games.
Marcus Mariota's passing TDs swings widely: a standard deviation of 0.9 on a 1.2 average. A wide spread means the average describes the middle of a broad range rather than a typical night.
| Window | Average |
|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 1.0 passing touchdowns |
| Last 10 games | 1.1 passing touchdowns |
| All 12 logged games | 1.2 passing touchdowns |
| Best in the log | 3 |
| Worst in the log | 0 |
| Home (5 games) | 1.4 passing touchdowns |
| Away (7 games) | 1.0 passing touchdowns |
Marcus Mariota's highest in this log is 3 passing touchdowns against the Seattle Seahawks on 2026-09-27, and the lowest is 0 against the Philadelphia Eagles on 2025-12-20. Both are single games, not a range to expect.
| Split | Over 1.5 passing touchdowns |
|---|---|
| At home | 2 of 5 (40%) |
| On the road | 2 of 7 (29%) |
Marcus Mariota has cleared 1.5 passing touchdowns at much the same rate home and away, 40% against 29%.
A split appears only where both sides have 5 games or more behind them.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Passing TDs |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-27 | Seattle Seahawks | Home | 3 |
| 2026-09-20 | Dallas Cowboys | Away | 1 |
| 2025-12-20 | Philadelphia Eagles | Home | 0 |
| 2025-12-14 | New York Giants | Home | 1 |
| 2025-12-07 | Minnesota Vikings | Away | 0 |
| 2025-12-01 | Denver Broncos | Away | 2 |
| 2025-11-16 | Miami Dolphins | Away | 1 |
| 2025-11-09 | Detroit Lions | Home | 2 |
| 2025-10-28 | Kansas City Chiefs | Away | 1 |
| 2025-10-19 | Dallas Cowboys | Away | 0 |
Every passing TDs prop the books have posted for Marcus Mariota of the Washington Commanders, with the NFL game log the number is drawn from, game by game and split by where and when they played.
Calculated by the ParlayBuilder Prop Engine.
Every figure on this page is counted from official NFL box scores, one row per game actually played. No projections, and a game the player missed is absent rather than scored as a zero. Hit rates against the live board are shrunk toward a league prior in proportion to how thin the sample is, so three-for-three does not read here as a certainty.
Past performance does not predict future results, and Parlay Builder does not accept wagers, hold funds or settle bets. No locks and no guaranteed wins. This is measured history and a price, and what you do with them is your decision.
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It loads live at the top of this page, with the best price across the major US sportsbooks beside it. It is deliberately not printed into the page itself: a line moves through the day, and a page that hard-coded one would keep telling you a number the book no longer offers.
The hit rate beside the line answers exactly that, measured against the exact line on offer over the games in the log below. The game count it is drawn from is printed next to it, because a rate without a denominator is not a measurement.
That depends entirely on the price, and this page will tell you when the answer is no. A prop only clears the research bar with a positive shrunk estimate at the current price, at least ten games behind the rate, a B− grade or better and a price a book has refreshed recently. Most props on most nights clear none of that.
All Marcus Mariota props and hit rates · Every NFL passing TDs prop
How NFL prop markets behave, measured across the league
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