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Over 12 logged NFL games, Marcus Mariota has gone over 15.5 completions 6 times (50%), and over their last 10 they have done it 5 times (50%). They average 14.1 completions across those 12 games. Their last 5 average 9.8, 30% below their 14.1 across the full log. These are measured box-score results from Washington Commanders games, not a projection, and on their own they say nothing about whether tonight’s price is worth taking.
| Line | All 12 | Last 10 | Last 5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 4.5 completions | 10 of 12 (83%) | 8 of 10 (80%) | 4 of 5 (80%) |
| Over 10.5 completions | 8 of 12 (67%) | 6 of 10 (60%) | 2 of 5 (40%) |
| Over 15.5 completions | 6 of 12 (50%) | 5 of 10 (50%) | 1 of 5 (20%) |
| Over 16.5 completions | 4 of 12 (33%) | 4 of 10 (40%) | 1 of 5 (20%) |
| Over 20.5 completions | 2 of 12 (17%) | 2 of 10 (20%) | 0 of 5 (0%) |
These are common half-point lines measured against the logged games above, not the lines posted for Marcus Mariota right now. The live board at the top of this page carries those, and it updates through the day.
Marcus Mariota has averaged 9.8 completions over their last 5, 30% below their 14.1 across all 12 logged games.
Marcus Mariota's completions varies moderately, a standard deviation of 7.3 around 14.1. That is an ordinary spread for this market.
| Window | Average |
|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 9.8 completions |
| Last 10 games | 13.8 completions |
| All 12 logged games | 14.1 completions |
| Best in the log | 28 |
| Worst in the log | 2 |
| Home (5 games) | 13.4 completions |
| Away (7 games) | 14.6 completions |
Marcus Mariota's highest in this log is 28 completions against the Denver Broncos on 2025-12-01, and the lowest is 2 against the Minnesota Vikings on 2025-12-07. Both are single games, not a range to expect.
| Split | Over 15.5 completions |
|---|---|
| At home | 2 of 5 (40%) |
| On the road | 4 of 7 (57%) |
Marcus Mariota has cleared 15.5 completions 17 points more often on the road, 40% in 5 home games against 57% in 7 away.
A split appears only where both sides have 5 games or more behind them.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Completions |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-27 | Seattle Seahawks | Home | 19 |
| 2026-09-20 | Dallas Cowboys | Away | 11 |
| 2025-12-20 | Philadelphia Eagles | Home | 7 |
| 2025-12-14 | New York Giants | Home | 10 |
| 2025-12-07 | Minnesota Vikings | Away | 2 |
| 2025-12-01 | Denver Broncos | Away | 28 |
| 2025-11-16 | Miami Dolphins | Away | 20 |
| 2025-11-09 | Detroit Lions | Home | 16 |
| 2025-10-28 | Kansas City Chiefs | Away | 21 |
| 2025-10-19 | Dallas Cowboys | Away | 4 |
Every completions prop the books have posted for Marcus Mariota of the Washington Commanders, with the NFL game log the number is drawn from, game by game and split by where and when they played.
Calculated by the ParlayBuilder Prop Engine.
Every figure on this page is counted from official NFL box scores, one row per game actually played. No projections, and a game the player missed is absent rather than scored as a zero. Hit rates against the live board are shrunk toward a league prior in proportion to how thin the sample is, so three-for-three does not read here as a certainty.
Past performance does not predict future results, and Parlay Builder does not accept wagers, hold funds or settle bets. No locks and no guaranteed wins. This is measured history and a price, and what you do with them is your decision.
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The hit rate beside the line answers exactly that, measured against the exact line on offer over the games in the log below. The game count it is drawn from is printed next to it, because a rate without a denominator is not a measurement.
That depends entirely on the price, and this page will tell you when the answer is no. A prop only clears the research bar with a positive shrunk estimate at the current price, at least ten games behind the rate, a B− grade or better and a price a book has refreshed recently. Most props on most nights clear none of that.
All Marcus Mariota props and hit rates · Every NFL completions prop
How NFL prop markets behave, measured across the league
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