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Across 37 NFL players with at least 10 logged games in passing TDs, this page measures 629 games in total. The median player in that field averages 1.4 passing touchdowns. The line closest to a coin flip sits at 1.5 for the median of the 37 players whose distribution supports one. Half the field is more often over it, half more often under. The deepest sample here is Drake Maye, with 25 logged games. Of the 30 players whose spread can be measured, 0 cluster tightly around their average, 13 vary moderately and 17 swing widely. 37 of them have at least three games home and away, so the venue gap below is measured rather than assumed. Every figure is counted from official box scores and describes games already played. It is not a projection, and on its own it says nothing about whether any price on offer is worth taking.
Each player's own most balanced threshold: the half-point line he has finished above in closest to half his logged games, measured from his distribution rather than read off a book. Deepest sample first, not best to worst.
| Player | Club | Logged games | Average | Balanced line | Hit rate there |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake Maye | Patriots | 25 | 1.9 passing touchdowns | Over 1.5 | 16 of 25 (64%) |
| Matthew Stafford | Rams | 24 | 2.4 passing touchdowns | Over 2.5 | 12 of 24 (50%) |
| Bo Nix | Broncos | 22 | 1.4 passing touchdowns | Over 1.5 | 8 of 22 (36%) |
| Sam Darnold | Seahawks | 22 | 1.4 passing touchdowns | Over 1.5 | 9 of 22 (41%) |
| Aaron Rodgers | Steelers | 21 | 1.4 passing touchdowns | Over 1.5 | 8 of 21 (38%) |
| Caleb Williams | Bears | 21 | 1.5 passing touchdowns | Over 1.5 | 12 of 21 (57%) |
| Dak Prescott | Cowboys | 21 | 1.7 passing touchdowns | Over 1.5 | 11 of 21 (52%) |
| Jordan Love | Packers | 21 | 1.8 passing touchdowns | Over 1.5 | 13 of 21 (62%) |
| Josh Allen | Bills | 21 | 1.5 passing touchdowns | Over 1.5 | 10 of 21 (48%) |
| Trevor Lawrence | Jaguars | 21 | 2.1 passing touchdowns | Over 2.5 | 9 of 21 (43%) |
| Bryce Young | Panthers | 20 | 1.6 passing touchdowns | Over 1.5 | 10 of 20 (50%) |
| Cam Ward | Titans | 20 | 0.9 passing touchdowns | Over 0.5 | 14 of 20 (70%) |
| Jacoby Brissett | Cardinals | 20 | 1.6 passing touchdowns | Over 1.5 | 13 of 20 (65%) |
| Jared Goff | Lions | 20 | 1.9 passing touchdowns | Over 1.5 | 12 of 20 (60%) |
| Justin Herbert | Chargers | 20 | 1.2 passing touchdowns | Over 1.5 | 6 of 20 (30%) |
| C.J. Stroud | Texans | 19 | 1.5 passing touchdowns | Over 1.5 | 8 of 19 (42%) |
| Geno Smith | Jets | 19 | 1.3 passing touchdowns | Over 1.5 | 6 of 19 (32%) |
| Baker Mayfield | Buccaneers | 18 | 1.1 passing touchdowns | Over 0.5 | 14 of 18 (78%) |
| Kirk Cousins | Raiders | 18 | 1.7 passing touchdowns | Over 1.5 | 10 of 18 (56%) |
| Tyler Shough | Saints | 18 | 1.3 passing touchdowns | Over 1.5 | 6 of 18 (33%) |
| Brock Purdy | 49ers | 17 | 2.1 passing touchdowns | Over 1.5 | 11 of 17 (65%) |
| Daniel Jones | Colts | 17 | 1.1 passing touchdowns | Over 1.5 | 5 of 17 (29%) |
| Patrick Mahomes | Chiefs | 17 | 1.6 passing touchdowns | Over 1.5 | 10 of 17 (59%) |
| Jalen Hurts | Eagles | 16 | 1.6 passing touchdowns | Over 1.5 | 8 of 16 (50%) |
| Joe Burrow | Bengals | 14 | 2.7 passing touchdowns | Over 2.5 | 8 of 14 (57%) |
| Lamar Jackson | Ravens | 14 | 1.2 passing touchdowns | Over 0.5 | 9 of 14 (64%) |
| J.J. McCarthy | Giants | 13 | 0.8 passing touchdowns | Over 0.5 | 7 of 13 (54%) |
| Malik Willis | Dolphins | 12 | 0.8 passing touchdowns | Over 0.5 | 7 of 12 (58%) |
| Michael Penix Jr. | Falcons | 12 | 1.3 passing touchdowns | Over 1.5 | 3 of 12 (25%) |
| Jameis Winston | Giants | 11 | 0.9 passing touchdowns | Over 0.5 | 5 of 11 (45%) |
| Jaxson Dart | Giants | 11 | 1.3 passing touchdowns | Over 1.5 | 5 of 11 (45%) |
| Jayden Daniels | Commanders | 11 | 1.3 passing touchdowns | Over 1.5 | 4 of 11 (36%) |
| Mac Jones | 49ers | 11 | 0.6 passing touchdowns | Over 0.5 | 3 of 11 (27%) |
| Marcus Mariota | Commanders | 11 | 1.0 passing touchdowns | Over 0.5 | 7 of 11 (64%) |
| Shedeur Sanders | Browns | 11 | 0.8 passing touchdowns | Over 0.5 | 6 of 11 (55%) |
| Tua Tagovailoa | Falcons | 10 | 1.0 passing touchdowns | Over 0.5 | 5 of 10 (50%) |
| Tyler Huntley | Ravens | 10 | 0.6 passing touchdowns | Over 0.5 | 5 of 10 (50%) |
Standard deviation in the market’s own units, and the same figure as a share of the player’s average so it means the same thing in points as in passing yards. A narrow spread means the average is close to what a typical game actually looked like; it says nothing about what the next one will look like.
| Player | Club | Logged games | Average | Standard deviation | Spread as % of average |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacoby Brissett | Cardinals | 20 | 1.6 passing touchdowns | 0.8 | 48% |
| Joe Burrow | Bengals | 14 | 2.7 passing touchdowns | 1.4 | 51% |
| Jared Goff | Lions | 20 | 1.9 passing touchdowns | 1.0 | 52% |
| Matthew Stafford | Rams | 24 | 2.4 passing touchdowns | 1.3 | 57% |
| Caleb Williams | Bears | 21 | 1.5 passing touchdowns | 0.9 | 61% |
| Brock Purdy | 49ers | 17 | 2.1 passing touchdowns | 1.3 | 63% |
| Kirk Cousins | Raiders | 18 | 1.7 passing touchdowns | 1.1 | 63% |
| Bryce Young | Panthers | 20 | 1.6 passing touchdowns | 1.1 | 64% |
| Drake Maye | Patriots | 25 | 1.9 passing touchdowns | 1.3 | 66% |
| Trevor Lawrence | Jaguars | 21 | 2.1 passing touchdowns | 1.4 | 66% |
The other end of the same measurement. A wide spread means the average describes the middle of a broad range rather than a typical night, which is worth knowing before reading anything into that average.
| Player | Club | Logged games | Average | Standard deviation | Spread as % of average |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tua Tagovailoa | Falcons | 10 | 1.0 passing touchdowns | 1.3 | 126% |
| Lamar Jackson | Ravens | 14 | 1.2 passing touchdowns | 1.2 | 99% |
| Marcus Mariota | Commanders | 11 | 1.0 passing touchdowns | 1.0 | 95% |
| Jaxson Dart | Giants | 11 | 1.3 passing touchdowns | 1.1 | 89% |
| Sam Darnold | Seahawks | 22 | 1.4 passing touchdowns | 1.2 | 87% |
| Jayden Daniels | Commanders | 11 | 1.3 passing touchdowns | 1.1 | 83% |
| Tyler Shough | Saints | 18 | 1.3 passing touchdowns | 1.1 | 83% |
| Patrick Mahomes | Chiefs | 17 | 1.6 passing touchdowns | 1.4 | 83% |
| Geno Smith | Jets | 19 | 1.3 passing touchdowns | 1.1 | 82% |
| Aaron Rodgers | Steelers | 21 | 1.4 passing touchdowns | 1.1 | 82% |
Both averages are over the games actually played at each venue, and the game count for each is in the cell beside it. A gap measured over a handful of games either way is one you cannot distinguish from noise. This table prints the denominators so you can tell which is which. Three games a side is the floor for appearing here at all.
| Player | Club | Home (games) | Away (games) | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Lawrence | Jaguars | 2.8 (12) | 1.2 (9) | 1.6 at home |
| Tua Tagovailoa | Falcons | 0.5 (6) | 1.8 (4) | 1.3 away |
| Joe Burrow | Bengals | 2.0 (6) | 3.3 (8) | 1.3 away |
| Jaxson Dart | Giants | 1.8 (5) | 0.8 (6) | 1.0 at home |
| Jordan Love | Packers | 1.3 (9) | 2.2 (12) | 0.9 away |
| Kirk Cousins | Raiders | 1.2 (9) | 2.1 (9) | 0.9 away |
| Jalen Hurts | Eagles | 2.1 (7) | 1.2 (9) | 0.9 at home |
| Lamar Jackson | Ravens | 0.7 (6) | 1.6 (8) | 0.9 away |
| Tyler Shough | Saints | 1.0 (9) | 1.7 (9) | 0.7 away |
| Daniel Jones | Colts | 1.5 (8) | 0.8 (9) | 0.7 at home |
Last five logged games against the full log, reported only where the gap is more than a tenth of the player’s own average. It is a description of five games that have been played and it is not a forecast of the sixth.
| Player | Club | Last 5 | Full log | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Stroud | Texans | 2.6 passing touchdowns | 1.5 over 19 | 70% above |
| Drake Maye | Patriots | 2.8 passing touchdowns | 1.9 over 25 | 46% above |
| Malik Willis | Dolphins | 1.0 passing touchdowns | 0.8 over 12 | 33% above |
| Tyler Huntley | Ravens | 0.8 passing touchdowns | 0.6 over 10 | 33% above |
| Aaron Rodgers | Steelers | 1.8 passing touchdowns | 1.4 over 21 | 30% above |
| Joe Burrow | Bengals | 3.4 passing touchdowns | 2.7 over 14 | 25% above |
| Jordan Love | Packers | 2.2 passing touchdowns | 1.8 over 21 | 22% above |
| Michael Penix Jr. | Falcons | 1.6 passing touchdowns | 1.3 over 12 | 20% above |
| Jameis Winston | Giants | 1.0 passing touchdowns | 0.9 over 11 | 10% above |
The same comparison in the other direction, and the same caveat: five games is five games, and a run below a baseline is as often noise as it is a change.
| Player | Club | Last 5 | Full log | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mac Jones | 49ers | 0.0 passing touchdowns | 0.6 over 11 | 100% below |
| J.J. McCarthy | Giants | 0.4 passing touchdowns | 0.8 over 13 | 53% below |
| Justin Herbert | Chargers | 0.6 passing touchdowns | 1.2 over 20 | 50% below |
| Daniel Jones | Colts | 0.6 passing touchdowns | 1.1 over 17 | 46% below |
| Baker Mayfield | Buccaneers | 0.6 passing touchdowns | 1.1 over 18 | 43% below |
| Tua Tagovailoa | Falcons | 0.6 passing touchdowns | 1.0 over 10 | 40% below |
| Jacoby Brissett | Cardinals | 1.2 passing touchdowns | 1.6 over 20 | 27% below |
| Shedeur Sanders | Browns | 0.6 passing touchdowns | 0.8 over 11 | 27% below |
| Jared Goff | Lions | 1.4 passing touchdowns | 1.9 over 20 | 24% below |
| Brock Purdy | 49ers | 1.6 passing touchdowns | 2.1 over 17 | 22% below |
At the half-point threshold each player has finished above in about half their logged games. It is measured per player from their own distribution rather than read off a sportsbook, which is why it is on this page at all: a posted line moves through the day and this page is rebuilt once, so a number taken from a book would be wrong by morning.
No. Nothing here is ordered by how good a bet it is, and no price is quoted anywhere on the page. The tables are ordered by sample depth, by spread and by the size of a measured gap, because those are the things a game log can actually establish.
The count is printed beside every one of them. A player only appears once they have ten or more logged games in the market, and games they did not play are absent rather than counted as zero, so an average describes games they were actually in.
No. A trend here is a comparison between a player’s last five logged games and their full log, and it is reported only when the gap is large enough to be worth naming. It is a description of what has happened, and history is not a forecast.
What these tables are measuring, explained: how to read a hit rate and what its denominator hides, what an over/under line is and what it is not.
NFL player props and live odds
Odds and lines come from licensed data feeds and refresh on a schedule; hit rates and grades are Parlay Builder’s own calculations.