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Across 56 NFL players with at least 10 logged games in receptions, this page measures 760 games in total. The median player in that field averages 5.0 receptions. The line closest to a coin flip sits at 4.5 for the median of the 56 players whose distribution supports one — half the field is more often over it, half more often under. The deepest sample here is Jaxon Smith-Njigba, with 19 logged games. Of the 56 players whose spread can be measured, 27 cluster tightly around their average, 29 vary moderately and 0 swing widely. 55 of them have at least three games home and away, so the venue gap below is measured rather than assumed. Every figure is counted from official box scores and describes games already played. It is not a projection, and on its own it says nothing about whether any price on offer is worth taking.
Each player's own most balanced threshold — the half-point line he has finished above in closest to half his logged games — measured from his distribution rather than read off a book. Deepest sample first, not best to worst. The 40 deepest samples of 56 measured; the figures above this table are over all 56.
| Player | Club | Logged games | Average | Balanced line | Hit rate there |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | Seahawks | 19 | 7.3 receptions | Over 7.5 | 12 of 19 (63%) |
| Puka Nacua | Rams | 19 | 8.2 receptions | Over 7.5 | 10 of 19 (53%) |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | Lions | 18 | 7.6 receptions | Over 7.5 | 10 of 18 (56%) |
| Davante Adams | Rams | 18 | 4.1 receptions | Over 4.5 | 7 of 18 (39%) |
| Trey McBride | Cardinals | 18 | 7.5 receptions | Over 7.5 | 9 of 18 (50%) |
| Justin Jefferson | Vikings | 17 | 5.3 receptions | Over 4.5 | 10 of 17 (59%) |
| Keenan Allen | Colts | 17 | 5.1 receptions | Over 4.5 | 10 of 17 (59%) |
| Zay Flowers | Ravens | 17 | 5.2 receptions | Over 5.5 | 7 of 17 (41%) |
| Chris Olave | Saints | 16 | 6.7 receptions | Over 6.5 | 8 of 16 (50%) |
| Courtland Sutton | Broncos | 16 | 4.8 receptions | Over 4.5 | 9 of 16 (56%) |
| Ja'Marr Chase | Bengals | 16 | 7.8 receptions | Over 6.5 | 9 of 16 (56%) |
| Tetairoa McMillan | Panthers | 16 | 4.8 receptions | Over 4.5 | 9 of 16 (56%) |
| Tyler Warren | Colts | 16 | 4.5 receptions | Over 4.5 | 8 of 16 (50%) |
| DeVonta Smith | Eagles | 15 | 5.2 receptions | Over 4.5 | 8 of 15 (53%) |
| DJ Moore | Bills | 15 | 4.1 receptions | Over 4.5 | 6 of 15 (40%) |
| Emeka Egbuka | Buccaneers | 15 | 4.3 receptions | Over 4.5 | 5 of 15 (33%) |
| George Pickens | Cowboys | 15 | 6.0 receptions | Over 5.5 | 8 of 15 (53%) |
| Khalil Shakir | Bills | 15 | 5.9 receptions | Over 5.5 | 9 of 15 (60%) |
| Travis Kelce | Chiefs | 15 | 4.9 receptions | Over 4.5 | 8 of 15 (53%) |
| Wan'Dale Robinson | Titans | 15 | 6.2 receptions | Over 5.5 | 9 of 15 (60%) |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | 49ers | 14 | 5.1 receptions | Over 4.5 | 8 of 14 (57%) |
| DK Metcalf | Steelers | 14 | 4.1 receptions | Over 3.5 | 9 of 14 (64%) |
| Kyle Pitts | Falcons | 14 | 5.8 receptions | Over 5.5 | 8 of 14 (57%) |
| Ladd McConkey | Chargers | 14 | 4.6 receptions | Over 4.5 | 7 of 14 (50%) |
| Nico Collins | Texans | 14 | 5.1 receptions | Over 4.5 | 6 of 14 (43%) |
| Stefon Diggs | Commanders | 14 | 5.7 receptions | Over 5.5 | 7 of 14 (50%) |
| A.J. Brown | Eagles | 13 | 5.8 receptions | Over 5.5 | 7 of 13 (54%) |
| CeeDee Lamb | Cowboys | 13 | 6.1 receptions | Over 5.5 | 8 of 13 (62%) |
| Harold Fannin Jr. | Browns | 13 | 4.8 receptions | Over 4.5 | 6 of 13 (46%) |
| Jakobi Meyers | Jaguars | 13 | 5.0 receptions | Over 4.5 | 7 of 13 (54%) |
| Jauan Jennings | 49ers | 13 | 4.0 receptions | Over 4.5 | 4 of 13 (31%) |
| Jaylen Waddle | Dolphins | 13 | 4.7 receptions | Over 4.5 | 9 of 13 (69%) |
| Rashid Shaheed | Seahawks | 13 | 4.4 receptions | Over 4.5 | 4 of 13 (31%) |
| Rome Odunze | Bears | 13 | 3.7 receptions | Over 2.5 | 7 of 13 (54%) |
| Brian Thomas Jr. | Jaguars | 12 | 3.7 receptions | Over 3.5 | 6 of 12 (50%) |
| Dalton Schultz | Texans | 12 | 5.8 receptions | Over 5.5 | 6 of 12 (50%) |
| Elic Ayomanor | Titans | 12 | 2.8 receptions | Over 2.5 | 7 of 12 (58%) |
| Jameson Williams | Lions | 12 | 5.2 receptions | Over 5.5 | 6 of 12 (50%) |
| Michael Pittman | Colts | 12 | 5.9 receptions | Over 5.5 | 6 of 12 (50%) |
| Tee Higgins | Bengals | 12 | 4.5 receptions | Over 4.5 | 6 of 12 (50%) |
Standard deviation in the market’s own units, and the same figure as a share of the player’s average so it means the same thing in points as in passing yards. A narrow spread means the average is close to what a typical game actually looked like; it says nothing about what the next one will look like.
| Player | Club | Logged games | Average | Standard deviation | Spread as % of average |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CeeDee Lamb | Cowboys | 13 | 6.1 receptions | 1.3 | 21% |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | Seahawks | 19 | 7.3 receptions | 1.7 | 23% |
| Jaylen Waddle | Dolphins | 13 | 4.7 receptions | 1.1 | 23% |
| Jakobi Meyers | Jaguars | 13 | 5.0 receptions | 1.2 | 24% |
| DJ Moore | Bills | 15 | 4.1 receptions | 1.0 | 25% |
| Dalton Schultz | Texans | 12 | 5.8 receptions | 1.6 | 28% |
| Jauan Jennings | 49ers | 13 | 4.0 receptions | 1.1 | 28% |
| Chig Okonkwo | Titans | 10 | 4.2 receptions | 1.2 | 28% |
| Parker Washington | Jaguars | 11 | 5.5 receptions | 1.6 | 29% |
| Jameson Williams | Lions | 12 | 5.2 receptions | 1.5 | 29% |
The other end of the same measurement. A wide spread means the average describes the middle of a broad range rather than a typical night, which is worth knowing before reading anything into that average.
| Player | Club | Logged games | Average | Standard deviation | Spread as % of average |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Wilson | Cardinals | 11 | 6.4 receptions | 3.7 | 58% |
| Rome Odunze | Bears | 13 | 3.7 receptions | 2.0 | 54% |
| Ja'Marr Chase | Bengals | 16 | 7.8 receptions | 3.7 | 48% |
| Dallas Goedert | Eagles | 10 | 5.0 receptions | 2.2 | 45% |
| Brian Thomas Jr. | Jaguars | 12 | 3.7 receptions | 1.6 | 45% |
| Ladd McConkey | Chargers | 14 | 4.6 receptions | 2.0 | 44% |
| DeVonta Smith | Eagles | 15 | 5.2 receptions | 2.3 | 44% |
| Colston Loveland | Bears | 11 | 5.0 receptions | 2.2 | 43% |
| Keenan Allen | Colts | 17 | 5.1 receptions | 2.1 | 42% |
| Jerry Jeudy | Browns | 11 | 3.5 receptions | 1.5 | 42% |
Both averages are over the games actually played at each venue, and the game count for each is in the cell beside it. A gap measured over a handful of games either way is one you cannot distinguish from noise — this table prints the denominators so you can tell which is which. Three games a side is the floor for appearing here at all.
| Player | Club | Home (games) | Away (games) | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colston Loveland | Bears | 6.4 (5) | 3.8 (6) | 2.6 at home |
| Juwan Johnson | Saints | 6.6 (5) | 4.2 (5) | 2.4 at home |
| Justin Jefferson | Vikings | 6.4 (8) | 4.3 (9) | 2.1 at home |
| Ja'Marr Chase | Bengals | 6.9 (9) | 9.0 (7) | 2.1 away |
| Michael Pittman | Colts | 5.3 (8) | 7.3 (4) | 2.0 away |
| Khalil Shakir | Bills | 5.3 (10) | 7.2 (5) | 1.9 away |
| Michael Wilson | Cardinals | 5.3 (4) | 7.0 (7) | 1.7 away |
| Harold Fannin Jr. | Browns | 5.7 (6) | 4.1 (7) | 1.6 at home |
| Jake Ferguson | Cowboys | 7.4 (5) | 5.8 (6) | 1.6 at home |
| Keenan Allen | Colts | 4.5 (10) | 5.9 (7) | 1.4 away |
Last five logged games against the full log, reported only where the gap is more than a tenth of the player’s own average. It is a description of five games that have been played and it is not a forecast of the sixth.
| Player | Club | Last 5 | Full log | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Pitts | Falcons | 7.4 receptions | 5.8 over 14 | 28% above |
| Colston Loveland | Bears | 6.2 receptions | 5.0 over 11 | 24% above |
| DJ Moore | Bills | 5.0 receptions | 4.1 over 15 | 21% above |
| Parker Washington | Jaguars | 6.2 receptions | 5.5 over 11 | 14% above |
| A.J. Brown | Eagles | 6.6 receptions | 5.8 over 13 | 13% above |
| Trey McBride | Cardinals | 8.4 receptions | 7.5 over 18 | 12% above |
| Jameson Williams | Lions | 5.8 receptions | 5.2 over 12 | 12% above |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | Lions | 8.4 receptions | 7.6 over 18 | 11% above |
| Chris Olave | Saints | 7.4 receptions | 6.7 over 16 | 11% above |
The same comparison in the other direction, and the same caveat: five games is five games, and a run below a baseline is as often noise as it is a change.
| Player | Club | Last 5 | Full log | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rome Odunze | Bears | 2.2 receptions | 3.7 over 13 | 40% below |
| George Pickens | Cowboys | 4.4 receptions | 6.0 over 15 | 27% below |
| Drake London | Falcons | 4.4 receptions | 6.0 over 11 | 27% below |
| Jake Ferguson | Cowboys | 4.8 receptions | 6.5 over 11 | 27% below |
| Stefon Diggs | Commanders | 4.2 receptions | 5.7 over 14 | 26% below |
| Josh Downs | Colts | 3.2 receptions | 4.2 over 11 | 23% below |
| Travis Kelce | Chiefs | 3.8 receptions | 4.9 over 15 | 22% below |
| Ladd McConkey | Chargers | 3.6 receptions | 4.6 over 14 | 22% below |
| Tre Tucker | Raiders | 3.2 receptions | 4.1 over 11 | 22% below |
| Courtland Sutton | Broncos | 3.8 receptions | 4.8 over 16 | 21% below |
At the half-point threshold each player has finished above in about half their logged games. It is measured per player from their own distribution rather than read off a sportsbook, which is why it is on this page at all: a posted line moves through the day and this page is rebuilt once, so a number taken from a book would be wrong by morning.
No. Nothing here is ordered by how good a bet it is, and no price is quoted anywhere on the page. The tables are ordered by sample depth, by spread and by the size of a measured gap, because those are the things a game log can actually establish.
The count is printed beside every one of them. A player only appears once they have ten or more logged games in the market, and games they did not play are absent rather than counted as zero, so an average describes games they were actually in.
No. A trend here is a comparison between a player’s last five logged games and their full log, and it is reported only when the gap is large enough to be worth naming. It is a description of what has happened, and history is not a forecast.
What these tables are measuring, explained: how to read a hit rate and what its denominator hides, what an over/under line is and what it is not.
NFL player props and live odds
Odds and lines come from licensed data feeds and refresh on a schedule; hit rates, edges and grades are Parlay Builder’s own calculations.