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With no line posted, over 17 NFL games since October 2025, Brian Thomas Jr. has gone over a balanced line of 2.5 receptions 9 times (53%), and over their last 10 they have done it 4 times (40%). They average 2.6 receptions across those 17 games. Their last 5 average 0.8, 69% below their 2.6 over their last 17 games. They have gone under 2.5 in each of their last 5. These are measured box-score results from Jacksonville Jaguars games, not a projection, and on their own they say nothing about whether the posted price is worth taking.
Sunday, November 15, 1:00 PM ET, on the road against the Tennessee Titans. Last logged game November 1, 14 days before.
| Line | All 17 | Last 10 | Last 5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 receptions | 15 of 17 (88%) | 8 of 10 (80%) | 3 of 5 (60%) |
| Over 1.5 receptions | 13 of 17 (76%) | 6 of 10 (60%) | 1 of 5 (20%) |
| Over 2.5 receptions | 9 of 17 (53%) | 4 of 10 (40%) | 0 of 5 (0%) |
| Over 3.5 receptions | 3 of 17 (18%) | 1 of 10 (10%) | 0 of 5 (0%) |
| Over 4.5 receptions | 1 of 17 (6%) | 0 of 10 (0%) | 0 of 5 (0%) |
These are common half-point lines measured against the logged games above, not the lines posted for Brian Thomas Jr. right now. The live board at the top of this page carries those, and it updates through the day.
Brian Thomas Jr. has averaged 0.8 receptions over their last 5, 69% below their 2.6 across all 17 logged games.
Brian Thomas Jr.'s receptions vary moderately, a standard deviation of 1.8 around 2.6. That is an ordinary spread for this market.
| Window | Average |
|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 0.8 receptions |
| Last 10 games | 1.9 receptions |
| All 17 logged games | 2.6 receptions |
| Best in the log | 8 |
| Worst in the log | 0 |
| Home (11 games) | 2.5 receptions |
| Away (6 games) | 2.7 receptions |
Brian Thomas Jr.'s highest in this log is 8 receptions against the Seattle Seahawks on 2025-10-12, and the lowest is 0 against the Houston Texans on 2026-10-18. Both are single games, not a range to expect.
| Split | Over 2.5 receptions |
|---|---|
| At home | 6 of 11 (55%) |
| On the road | 3 of 6 (50%) |
Brian Thomas Jr. has cleared 2.5 receptions at much the same rate home and away, 55% against 50%.
A split appears only where both sides have 5 games or more behind them.
Brian Thomas Jr. has 2 logged games against the Tennessee Titans, averaging 2.5 receptions with a high of 3. Most recent first, those games read 3, 2. A handful of meetings is a very small sample and is shown for context rather than as a pattern.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Receptions |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-01 | Indianapolis Colts | Home | 1 |
| 2026-10-18 | Houston Texans | Home | 0 |
| 2026-10-11 | Philadelphia Eagles | Home | 0 |
| 2026-10-04 | Cincinnati Bengals | Away | 2 |
| 2026-09-27 | New England Patriots | Home | 1 |
| 2026-09-20 | Denver Broncos | Away | 3 |
| 2026-09-13 | Cleveland Browns | Home | 3 |
| 2026-01-11 | Buffalo Bills | Home | 2 |
| 2026-01-04 | Tennessee Titans | Home | 3 |
| 2025-12-28 | Indianapolis Colts | Away | 4 |
Brian Thomas Jr. of the Jacksonville Jaguars in receptions, measured from official NFL box scores rather than from anybody's projection. The table above is their hit rate at every threshold their own distribution supports, over three nested windows, each with its own denominator. Below it are the games themselves. No line or price is printed on this page; when the board carries one, it loads live above this text and this history is what it will be measured against.
Calculated by the ParlayBuilder Prop Engine.
Every figure on this page is counted from official NFL box scores, one row per game actually played. No projections, and a game the player missed is absent rather than scored as a zero. Where a hit rate is compared with the live price, it is first pulled toward that price in proportion to how thin the sample is, so three-for-three does not read here as a certainty.
Past performance does not predict future results, and Parlay Builder does not accept wagers, hold funds or settle bets. This is measured history and a price, and what you do with them is your decision.
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None is printed on this page, which is why this page shows thresholds drawn from their own game log instead. Those are facts about games already played and they do not go stale; a line does, which is why one is never printed into a cached page here.
The table above answers that at every threshold their log supports, over all their logged games and over the last ten and five, so a recent run and a full record can be read side by side rather than confused for each other.
Official box scores, one row per game played, loaded four times a day and rebuilt into this page daily. Games the player missed are absent rather than counted as zero, so the averages describe games they were actually in.
All Brian Thomas Jr. props and hit rates · Every NFL receptions prop
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Odds and lines come from licensed data feeds and refresh on a schedule; hit rates and grades are Parlay Builder’s own calculations.