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Across 27 NFL players with at least 10 logged games in completions, this page measures 443 games in total. The median player in that field averages 20.5 completions. The line closest to a coin flip sits at 19.5 for the median of the 27 players whose distribution supports one — half the field is more often over it, half more often under. The deepest sample here is Drake Maye, with 22 logged games. Of the 27 players whose spread can be measured, 27 cluster tightly around their average, 0 vary moderately and 0 swing widely. 27 of them have at least three games home and away, so the venue gap below is measured rather than assumed. Every figure is counted from official box scores and describes games already played. It is not a projection, and on its own it says nothing about whether any price on offer is worth taking.
Each player's own most balanced threshold — the half-point line he has finished above in closest to half his logged games — measured from his distribution rather than read off a book. Deepest sample first, not best to worst.
| Player | Club | Logged games | Average | Balanced line | Hit rate there |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake Maye | Patriots | 22 | 20.3 completions | Over 19.5 | 10 of 22 (45%) |
| Matthew Stafford | Rams | 21 | 22.3 completions | Over 22.5 | 10 of 21 (48%) |
| Caleb Williams | Bears | 20 | 19.9 completions | Over 19.5 | 10 of 20 (50%) |
| Josh Allen | Bills | 20 | 20.6 completions | Over 20.5 | 10 of 20 (50%) |
| Bo Nix | Broncos | 19 | 22.7 completions | Over 23.5 | 10 of 19 (53%) |
| Jared Goff | Lions | 19 | 23.4 completions | Over 23.5 | 10 of 19 (53%) |
| Sam Darnold | Seahawks | 19 | 19.4 completions | Over 18.5 | 10 of 19 (53%) |
| Trevor Lawrence | Jaguars | 19 | 19.8 completions | Over 19.5 | 10 of 19 (53%) |
| Aaron Rodgers | Steelers | 18 | 20.4 completions | Over 21.5 | 9 of 18 (50%) |
| Baker Mayfield | Buccaneers | 18 | 20.3 completions | Over 18.5 | 9 of 18 (50%) |
| Bryce Young | Panthers | 18 | 19.3 completions | Over 17.5 | 10 of 18 (56%) |
| Jalen Hurts | Eagles | 18 | 18.2 completions | Over 15.5 | 10 of 18 (56%) |
| Justin Herbert | Chargers | 18 | 20.9 completions | Over 19.5 | 9 of 18 (50%) |
| Cam Ward | Titans | 17 | 19.9 completions | Over 19.5 | 10 of 17 (59%) |
| Dak Prescott | Cowboys | 17 | 24.6 completions | Over 23.5 | 8 of 17 (47%) |
| C.J. Stroud | Texans | 16 | 20.9 completions | Over 21.5 | 9 of 16 (56%) |
| Geno Smith | Jets | 16 | 20.1 completions | Over 18.5 | 9 of 16 (56%) |
| Jordan Love | Packers | 16 | 20.5 completions | Over 19.5 | 7 of 16 (44%) |
| Patrick Mahomes | Chiefs | 15 | 22.0 completions | Over 22.5 | 8 of 15 (53%) |
| Tua Tagovailoa | Dolphins | 14 | 18.6 completions | Over 17.5 | 7 of 14 (50%) |
| Daniel Jones | Colts | 13 | 21.2 completions | Over 20.5 | 7 of 13 (54%) |
| Jacoby Brissett | Cardinals | 13 | 26.3 completions | Over 25.5 | 6 of 13 (46%) |
| Brock Purdy | 49ers | 12 | 21.3 completions | Over 22.5 | 6 of 12 (50%) |
| Jaxson Dart | Giants | 12 | 19.3 completions | Over 19.5 | 6 of 12 (50%) |
| Lamar Jackson | Ravens | 12 | 16.2 completions | Over 14.5 | 7 of 12 (58%) |
| Tyler Shough | Saints | 11 | 23.3 completions | Over 22.5 | 6 of 11 (55%) |
| Joe Flacco | Bengals | 10 | 24.7 completions | Over 23.5 | 5 of 10 (50%) |
Standard deviation in the market’s own units, and the same figure as a share of the player’s average so it means the same thing in points as in passing yards. A narrow spread means the average is close to what a typical game actually looked like; it says nothing about what the next one will look like.
| Player | Club | Logged games | Average | Standard deviation | Spread as % of average |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Williams | Bears | 20 | 19.9 completions | 2.8 | 14% |
| Lamar Jackson | Ravens | 12 | 16.2 completions | 2.8 | 17% |
| Brock Purdy | 49ers | 12 | 21.3 completions | 3.6 | 17% |
| Daniel Jones | Colts | 13 | 21.2 completions | 3.8 | 18% |
| Trevor Lawrence | Jaguars | 19 | 19.8 completions | 3.5 | 18% |
| Matthew Stafford | Rams | 21 | 22.3 completions | 4.1 | 18% |
| Jared Goff | Lions | 19 | 23.4 completions | 4.9 | 21% |
| Dak Prescott | Cowboys | 17 | 24.6 completions | 5.2 | 21% |
| Jaxson Dart | Giants | 12 | 19.3 completions | 4.0 | 21% |
| C.J. Stroud | Texans | 16 | 20.9 completions | 4.4 | 21% |
The other end of the same measurement. A wide spread means the average describes the middle of a broad range rather than a typical night, which is worth knowing before reading anything into that average.
| Player | Club | Logged games | Average | Standard deviation | Spread as % of average |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryce Young | Panthers | 18 | 19.3 completions | 5.8 | 30% |
| Baker Mayfield | Buccaneers | 18 | 20.3 completions | 6.0 | 30% |
| Tyler Shough | Saints | 11 | 23.3 completions | 6.7 | 29% |
| Justin Herbert | Chargers | 18 | 20.9 completions | 6.1 | 29% |
| Geno Smith | Jets | 16 | 20.1 completions | 5.7 | 28% |
| Jacoby Brissett | Cardinals | 13 | 26.3 completions | 7.3 | 28% |
| Tua Tagovailoa | Dolphins | 14 | 18.6 completions | 5.2 | 28% |
| Drake Maye | Patriots | 22 | 20.3 completions | 5.4 | 27% |
| Josh Allen | Bills | 20 | 20.6 completions | 5.4 | 26% |
| Aaron Rodgers | Steelers | 18 | 20.4 completions | 5.4 | 26% |
Both averages are over the games actually played at each venue, and the game count for each is in the cell beside it. A gap measured over a handful of games either way is one you cannot distinguish from noise — this table prints the denominators so you can tell which is which. Three games a side is the floor for appearing here at all.
| Player | Club | Home (games) | Away (games) | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | Bengals | 29.0 (3) | 22.9 (7) | 6.1 at home |
| Bo Nix | Broncos | 24.5 (11) | 20.1 (8) | 4.4 at home |
| Aaron Rodgers | Steelers | 21.3 (14) | 17.5 (4) | 3.8 at home |
| Dak Prescott | Cowboys | 26.7 (6) | 23.5 (11) | 3.2 at home |
| Jacoby Brissett | Cardinals | 24.4 (5) | 27.5 (8) | 3.1 away |
| Jordan Love | Packers | 22.0 (7) | 19.3 (9) | 2.7 at home |
| C.J. Stroud | Texans | 21.6 (11) | 19.2 (5) | 2.4 at home |
| Tua Tagovailoa | Dolphins | 17.0 (5) | 19.4 (9) | 2.4 away |
| Justin Herbert | Chargers | 20.0 (11) | 22.3 (7) | 2.3 away |
| Brock Purdy | 49ers | 19.7 (3) | 21.8 (9) | 2.1 away |
Last five logged games against the full log, reported only where the gap is more than a tenth of the player’s own average. It is a description of five games that have been played and it is not a forecast of the sixth.
| Player | Club | Last 5 | Full log | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | Steelers | 24.0 completions | 20.4 over 18 | 17% above |
| Tyler Shough | Saints | 27.2 completions | 23.3 over 11 | 17% above |
| Caleb Williams | Bears | 22.6 completions | 19.9 over 20 | 14% above |
| Josh Allen | Bills | 23.2 completions | 20.6 over 20 | 13% above |
| Jared Goff | Lions | 26.2 completions | 23.4 over 19 | 12% above |
The same comparison in the other direction, and the same caveat: five games is five games, and a run below a baseline is as often noise as it is a change.
| Player | Club | Last 5 | Full log | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tua Tagovailoa | Dolphins | 15.2 completions | 18.6 over 14 | 18% below |
| Geno Smith | Jets | 17.2 completions | 20.1 over 16 | 14% below |
| Jacoby Brissett | Cardinals | 22.6 completions | 26.3 over 13 | 14% below |
| Patrick Mahomes | Chiefs | 19.4 completions | 22.0 over 15 | 12% below |
| Jalen Hurts | Eagles | 16.2 completions | 18.2 over 18 | 11% below |
At the half-point threshold each player has finished above in about half their logged games. It is measured per player from their own distribution rather than read off a sportsbook, which is why it is on this page at all: a posted line moves through the day and this page is rebuilt once, so a number taken from a book would be wrong by morning.
No. Nothing here is ordered by how good a bet it is, and no price is quoted anywhere on the page. The tables are ordered by sample depth, by spread and by the size of a measured gap, because those are the things a game log can actually establish.
The count is printed beside every one of them. A player only appears once they have ten or more logged games in the market, and games they did not play are absent rather than counted as zero, so an average describes games they were actually in.
No. A trend here is a comparison between a player’s last five logged games and their full log, and it is reported only when the gap is large enough to be worth naming. It is a description of what has happened, and history is not a forecast.
What these tables are measuring, explained: how to read a hit rate and what its denominator hides, what an over/under line is and what it is not.
NFL player props and live odds
Odds and lines come from licensed data feeds and refresh on a schedule; hit rates, edges and grades are Parlay Builder’s own calculations.