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How NFL passing yards actually behave

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Across 37 NFL players with at least 10 logged games in passing yards, this page measures 629 games in total. The median player in that field averages 216.8 passing yards. The line closest to a coin flip sits at 213.5 for the median of the 37 players whose distribution supports one. Half the field is more often over it, half more often under. The deepest sample here is Drake Maye, with 25 logged games. Of the 37 players whose spread can be measured, 23 cluster tightly around their average, 10 vary moderately and 4 swing widely. 37 of them have at least three games home and away, so the venue gap below is measured rather than assumed. Every figure is counted from official box scores and describes games already played. It is not a projection, and on its own it says nothing about whether any price on offer is worth taking.

Measured as of 2026-11-15, rebuilt daily from official box scores. Window: 2025-10-12 to 2026-11-12. No prices appear on this page.

629 logged player-games from 337 unique games. A player-game is one player in one game, so a single game counts once for every player it logged.

Where the coin-flip line sits in NFL passing yards

Each player's own most balanced threshold: the half-point line he has finished above in closest to half his logged games, measured from his distribution rather than read off a book. Deepest sample first, not best to worst.

NFL passing yards: measured field
PlayerClubLogged gamesAverageBalanced lineHit rate there
Drake MayePatriots25249.7 passing yardsOver 259.513 of 25 (52%)
Matthew StaffordRams24271.4 passing yardsOver 269.512 of 24 (50%)
Bo NixBroncos22219.9 passing yardsOver 214.511 of 22 (50%)
Sam DarnoldSeahawks22225.1 passing yardsOver 213.511 of 22 (50%)
Aaron RodgersSteelers21216.8 passing yardsOver 219.511 of 21 (52%)
Caleb WilliamsBears21246.6 passing yardsOver 247.511 of 21 (52%)
Dak PrescottCowboys21265.6 passing yardsOver 264.511 of 21 (52%)
Jordan LovePackers21253.4 passing yardsOver 259.511 of 21 (52%)
Josh AllenBills21239.7 passing yardsOver 251.511 of 21 (52%)
Trevor LawrenceJaguars21241.9 passing yardsOver 242.511 of 21 (52%)
Bryce YoungPanthers20226.1 passing yardsOver 206.510 of 20 (50%)
Cam WardTitans20188.7 passing yardsOver 181.510 of 20 (50%)
Jacoby BrissettCardinals20254.3 passing yardsOver 261.510 of 20 (50%)
Jared GoffLions20275.6 passing yardsOver 271.510 of 20 (50%)
Justin HerbertChargers20212.4 passing yardsOver 209.510 of 20 (50%)
C.J. StroudTexans19246.2 passing yardsOver 244.510 of 19 (53%)
Geno SmithJets19206.7 passing yardsOver 182.510 of 19 (53%)
Baker MayfieldBuccaneers18185.1 passing yardsOver 194.59 of 18 (50%)
Kirk CousinsRaiders18224.0 passing yardsOver 216.59 of 18 (50%)
Tyler ShoughSaints18242.8 passing yardsOver 255.59 of 18 (50%)
Brock Purdy49ers17233.1 passing yardsOver 218.59 of 17 (53%)
Daniel JonesColts17207.8 passing yardsOver 201.59 of 17 (53%)
Patrick MahomesChiefs17256.9 passing yardsOver 250.59 of 17 (53%)
Jalen HurtsEagles16197.1 passing yardsOver 183.58 of 16 (50%)
Joe BurrowBengals14286.1 passing yardsOver 271.57 of 14 (50%)
Lamar JacksonRavens14189.1 passing yardsOver 193.57 of 14 (50%)
J.J. McCarthyGiants13172.8 passing yardsOver 150.57 of 13 (54%)
Malik WillisDolphins12151.5 passing yardsOver 137.56 of 12 (50%)
Michael Penix Jr.Falcons12209.0 passing yardsOver 221.56 of 12 (50%)
Jameis WinstonGiants11145.0 passing yardsOver 111.56 of 11 (55%)
Jaxson DartGiants11183.1 passing yardsOver 193.56 of 11 (55%)
Jayden DanielsCommanders11190.6 passing yardsOver 164.56 of 11 (55%)
Mac Jones49ers11113.6 passing yardsOver 0.56 of 11 (55%)
Marcus MariotaCommanders11152.0 passing yardsOver 111.56 of 11 (55%)
Shedeur SandersBrowns11154.5 passing yardsOver 149.56 of 11 (55%)
Tua TagovailoaFalcons10168.6 passing yardsOver 171.55 of 10 (50%)
Tyler HuntleyRavens10115.3 passing yardsOver 68.55 of 10 (50%)

The steadiest NFL passing yards records

Standard deviation in the market’s own units, and the same figure as a share of the player’s average so it means the same thing in points as in passing yards. A narrow spread means the average is close to what a typical game actually looked like; it says nothing about what the next one will look like.

The steadiest NFL passing yards records
PlayerClubLogged gamesAverageStandard deviationSpread as % of average
Michael Penix Jr.Falcons12209.0 passing yards38.718%
Trevor LawrenceJaguars21241.9 passing yards48.620%
Josh AllenBills21239.7 passing yards56.323%
Caleb WilliamsBears21246.6 passing yards56.123%
Jared GoffLions20275.6 passing yards63.023%
Patrick MahomesChiefs17256.9 passing yards60.023%
Brock Purdy49ers17233.1 passing yards56.424%
Aaron RodgersSteelers21216.8 passing yards54.425%
Joe BurrowBengals14286.1 passing yards73.526%
Dak PrescottCowboys21265.6 passing yards68.726%

The widest NFL passing yards swings

The other end of the same measurement. A wide spread means the average describes the middle of a broad range rather than a typical night, which is worth knowing before reading anything into that average.

The widest NFL passing yards swings
PlayerClubLogged gamesAverageStandard deviationSpread as % of average
Mac Jones49ers11113.6 passing yards133.4117%
Jameis WinstonGiants11145.0 passing yards122.985%
Tyler HuntleyRavens10115.3 passing yards90.779%
Shedeur SandersBrowns11154.5 passing yards108.470%
Malik WillisDolphins12151.5 passing yards83.555%
Marcus MariotaCommanders11152.0 passing yards82.454%
J.J. McCarthyGiants13172.8 passing yards79.646%
Baker MayfieldBuccaneers18185.1 passing yards85.446%
Jaxson DartGiants11183.1 passing yards81.845%
Bryce YoungPanthers20226.1 passing yards92.641%

The widest home and away gaps in NFL passing yards

Both averages are over the games actually played at each venue, and the game count for each is in the cell beside it. A gap measured over a handful of games either way is one you cannot distinguish from noise. This table prints the denominators so you can tell which is which. Three games a side is the floor for appearing here at all.

NFL passing yards: venue gaps
PlayerClubHome (games)Away (games)Gap
J.J. McCarthyGiants213.2 (6)138.1 (7)75.1 at home
Sam DarnoldSeahawks195.9 (12)260.1 (10)64.2 away
Joe BurrowBengals318.3 (6)262.0 (8)56.3 at home
Jameis WinstonGiants120.2 (6)174.8 (5)54.6 away
Jalen HurtsEagles169.0 (7)218.9 (9)49.9 away
Geno SmithJets227.9 (10)183.1 (9)44.8 at home
Kirk CousinsRaiders202.4 (9)245.6 (9)43.2 away
Tyler HuntleyRavens136.0 (5)94.6 (5)41.4 at home
Bo NixBroncos237.3 (12)198.9 (10)38.4 at home
Jayden DanielsCommanders210.8 (5)173.8 (6)37.0 at home

Ahead of their own baseline over the last five

Last five logged games against the full log, reported only where the gap is more than a tenth of the player’s own average. It is a description of five games that have been played and it is not a forecast of the sixth.

Ahead of their own baseline over the last five
PlayerClubLast 5Full logDifference
Jayden DanielsCommanders247.8 passing yards190.6 over 1130% above
Tyler HuntleyRavens145.4 passing yards115.3 over 1026% above
Jordan LovePackers315.4 passing yards253.4 over 2124% above
C.J. StroudTexans291.4 passing yards246.2 over 1918% above
Kirk CousinsRaiders262.8 passing yards224.0 over 1817% above
Joe BurrowBengals328.6 passing yards286.1 over 1415% above
Drake MayePatriots285.6 passing yards249.7 over 2514% above
Geno SmithJets235.2 passing yards206.7 over 1914% above
Bryce YoungPanthers251.6 passing yards226.1 over 2011% above

Behind their own baseline over the last five

The same comparison in the other direction, and the same caveat: five games is five games, and a run below a baseline is as often noise as it is a change.

Behind their own baseline over the last five
PlayerClubLast 5Full logDifference
Mac Jones49ers0.8 passing yards113.6 over 1199% below
Baker MayfieldBuccaneers141.2 passing yards185.1 over 1824% below
Jameis WinstonGiants109.8 passing yards145.0 over 1124% below
Shedeur SandersBrowns119.2 passing yards154.5 over 1123% below
Jaxson DartGiants144.0 passing yards183.1 over 1121% below
Bo NixBroncos182.2 passing yards219.9 over 2217% below
Jacoby BrissettCardinals213.4 passing yards254.3 over 2016% below
Marcus MariotaCommanders129.2 passing yards152.0 over 1115% below
Matthew StaffordRams237.0 passing yards271.4 over 2413% below
Tyler ShoughSaints213.8 passing yards242.8 over 1812% below

Common questions

Where does the NFL passing yards coin-flip line sit?

At the half-point threshold each player has finished above in about half their logged games. It is measured per player from their own distribution rather than read off a sportsbook, which is why it is on this page at all: a posted line moves through the day and this page is rebuilt once, so a number taken from a book would be wrong by morning.

Is this a ranking of the best NFL passing yards props?

No. Nothing here is ordered by how good a bet it is, and no price is quoted anywhere on the page. The tables are ordered by sample depth, by spread and by the size of a measured gap, because those are the things a game log can actually establish.

How many games are behind each passing yards figure?

The count is printed beside every one of them. A player only appears once they have ten or more logged games in the market, and games they did not play are absent rather than counted as zero, so an average describes games they were actually in.

Does a passing yards trend on this page predict the next game?

No. A trend here is a comparison between a player’s last five logged games and their full log, and it is reported only when the gap is large enough to be worth naming. It is a description of what has happened, and history is not a forecast.

What these tables are measuring, explained: how to read a hit rate and what its denominator hides, what an over/under line is and what it is not.

NFL player props and live odds

Odds and lines come from licensed data feeds and refresh on a schedule; hit rates and grades are Parlay Builder’s own calculations.