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Across 542 NBA players with at least 10 logged games in points, this page measures 32390 games in total. The median player in that field averages 8.0 points. The line closest to a coin flip sits at 7.5 for the median of the 542 players whose distribution supports one. Half the field is more often over it, half more often under. The deepest sample here is Julian Champagnie, with 118 logged games. Of the 537 players whose spread can be measured, 38 cluster tightly around their average, 247 vary moderately and 252 swing widely. 542 of them have at least three games home and away, so the venue gap below is measured rather than assumed. Every figure is counted from official box scores and describes games already played. It is not a projection, and on its own it says nothing about whether any price on offer is worth taking.
Each player's own most balanced threshold: the half-point line he has finished above in closest to half his logged games, measured from his distribution rather than read off a book. Deepest sample first, not best to worst. The 40 deepest samples of 542 measured; the figures above this table are over all 542.
| Player | Club | Logged games | Average | Balanced line | Hit rate there |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julian Champagnie | Spurs | 118 | 11.0 points | Over 10.5 | 59 of 118 (50%) |
| Keldon Johnson | Spurs | 118 | 11.6 points | Over 10.5 | 63 of 118 (53%) |
| Mikal Bridges | Knicks | 113 | 13.5 points | Over 13.5 | 56 of 113 (50%) |
| Harrison Barnes | Spurs | 108 | 8.1 points | Over 7.5 | 50 of 108 (46%) |
| De'Aaron Fox | Spurs | 106 | 17.4 points | Over 16.5 | 55 of 106 (52%) |
| Karl-Anthony Towns | Knicks | 106 | 19.4 points | Over 19.5 | 54 of 106 (51%) |
| Carter Bryant | Spurs | 105 | 3.9 points | Over 2.5 | 58 of 105 (55%) |
| Dylan Harper | Spurs | 105 | 13.0 points | Over 12.5 | 57 of 105 (54%) |
| Jalen Brunson | Knicks | 105 | 26.5 points | Over 27.5 | 51 of 105 (49%) |
| Javonte Green | Pistons | 105 | 6.4 points | Over 6.5 | 48 of 105 (46%) |
| Luke Kornet | Spurs | 104 | 5.5 points | Over 5.5 | 50 of 104 (48%) |
| Stephon Castle | Spurs | 104 | 16.8 points | Over 16.5 | 53 of 104 (51%) |
| Julius Randle | Nets | 103 | 20.4 points | Over 19.5 | 50 of 103 (49%) |
| Desmond Bane | Magic | 102 | 19.8 points | Over 19.5 | 50 of 102 (49%) |
| Duncan Robinson | Pistons | 102 | 12.8 points | Over 12.5 | 55 of 102 (54%) |
| Jake LaRavia | Lakers | 102 | 7.5 points | Over 6.5 | 46 of 102 (45%) |
| Devin Vassell | Spurs | 101 | 13.4 points | Over 13.5 | 48 of 101 (48%) |
| Donovan Mitchell | Cavaliers | 101 | 26.9 points | Over 27.5 | 50 of 101 (50%) |
| Jamal Shead | Raptors | 101 | 6.8 points | Over 6.5 | 46 of 101 (46%) |
| James Harden | Cavaliers | 101 | 22.0 points | Over 20.5 | 49 of 101 (49%) |
| Naz Reid | Hornets | 101 | 13.9 points | Over 13.5 | 49 of 101 (49%) |
| Jordan Clarkson | Knicks | 100 | 7.7 points | Over 7.5 | 51 of 100 (51%) |
| Rudy Gobert | Timberwolves | 100 | 10.0 points | Over 9.5 | 51 of 100 (51%) |
| Sandro Mamukelashvili | Lakers | 100 | 10.7 points | Over 10.5 | 50 of 100 (50%) |
| Toumani Camara | Trail Blazers | 100 | 13.0 points | Over 12.5 | 53 of 100 (53%) |
| Ronald Holland II | Pistons | 99 | 7.2 points | Over 6.5 | 51 of 99 (52%) |
| Victor Wembanyama | Spurs | 99 | 25.2 points | Over 25.5 | 51 of 99 (52%) |
| VJ Edgecombe | 76ers | 99 | 15.4 points | Over 13.5 | 53 of 99 (54%) |
| Wendell Carter Jr. | Magic | 99 | 11.9 points | Over 11.5 | 49 of 99 (49%) |
| Amen Thompson | Rockets | 98 | 17.9 points | Over 17.5 | 51 of 98 (52%) |
| Ausar Thompson | Pistons | 98 | 9.7 points | Over 8.5 | 51 of 98 (52%) |
| Daniss Jenkins | Pistons | 98 | 9.8 points | Over 7.5 | 50 of 98 (51%) |
| Jaden McDaniels | Timberwolves | 98 | 15.3 points | Over 15.5 | 50 of 98 (51%) |
| Luke Kennard | Suns | 98 | 8.7 points | Over 8.5 | 50 of 98 (51%) |
| Payton Pritchard | Celtics | 98 | 16.4 points | Over 15.5 | 50 of 98 (51%) |
| Quentin Grimes | Lakers | 98 | 12.0 points | Over 11.5 | 49 of 98 (50%) |
| Reed Sheppard | Rockets | 98 | 13.0 points | Over 12.5 | 48 of 98 (49%) |
| Collin Gillespie | Suns | 97 | 11.8 points | Over 11.5 | 51 of 97 (53%) |
| Luguentz Dort | Hawks | 97 | 8.0 points | Over 7.5 | 46 of 97 (47%) |
| Nickeil Alexander-Walker | Hawks | 97 | 20.5 points | Over 20.5 | 46 of 97 (47%) |
Standard deviation in the market’s own units, and the same figure as a share of the player’s average so it means the same thing in points as in passing yards. A narrow spread means the average is close to what a typical game actually looked like; it says nothing about what the next one will look like.
| Player | Club | Logged games | Average | Standard deviation | Spread as % of average |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | Thunder | 96 | 30.5 points | 7.3 | 24% |
| Meleek Thomas | Cavaliers | 11 | 13.6 points | 3.5 | 26% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo | Heat | 49 | 27.9 points | 7.4 | 26% |
| Pascal Siakam | Pacers | 74 | 23.7 points | 6.2 | 26% |
| Kevin Durant | Rockets | 92 | 25.2 points | 6.6 | 26% |
| Damian Lillard | Trail Blazers | 12 | 20.6 points | 5.4 | 26% |
| Jayson Tatum | Celtics | 33 | 23.5 points | 6.1 | 26% |
| Jaylen Brown | 76ers | 90 | 27.5 points | 7.5 | 27% |
| Luka Dončić | Lakers | 75 | 34.2 points | 9.3 | 27% |
| Kawhi Leonard | Raptors | 68 | 27.5 points | 7.3 | 27% |
The other end of the same measurement. A wide spread means the average describes the middle of a broad range rather than a typical night, which is worth knowing before reading anything into that average.
| Player | Club | Logged games | Average | Standard deviation | Spread as % of average |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Ingles | Timberwolves | 30 | 1.6 points | 3.4 | 210% |
| TyTy Washington Jr. | Clippers | 16 | 1.3 points | 2.7 | 208% |
| Brooks Barnhizer | Thunder | 48 | 1.6 points | 3.0 | 186% |
| Nikola Topić | Thunder | 20 | 2.8 points | 4.9 | 174% |
| Hunter Tyson | Nuggets | 21 | 2.2 points | 3.8 | 173% |
| Johni Broome | 76ers | 13 | 1.3 points | 2.2 | 168% |
| Trey Jemison III | Knicks | 13 | 1.0 points | 1.7 | 166% |
| Kyle Lowry | 76ers | 16 | 1.1 points | 1.7 | 165% |
| Kevin McCullar Jr. | Knicks | 21 | 2.4 points | 3.9 | 163% |
| Ron Harper Jr. | Celtics | 41 | 3.5 points | 5.5 | 159% |
Both averages are over the games actually played at each venue, and the game count for each is in the cell beside it. A gap measured over a handful of games either way is one you cannot distinguish from noise. This table prints the denominators so you can tell which is which. Three games a side is the floor for appearing here at all.
| Player | Club | Home (games) | Away (games) | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Walker Kessler | Lakers | 19.2 (9) | 9.8 (9) | 9.4 at home |
| Nate Williams | Warriors | 12.4 (5) | 5.6 (9) | 6.8 at home |
| Trae Young | Wizards | 21.8 (13) | 16.1 (15) | 5.7 at home |
| Fred VanVleet | Rockets | 12.0 (7) | 17.5 (4) | 5.5 away |
| Kawhi Leonard | Raptors | 30.0 (36) | 24.8 (32) | 5.2 at home |
| Elijah Harkless | Pistons | 9.6 (11) | 4.4 (17) | 5.2 at home |
| Haywood Highsmith | Suns | 0.8 (4) | 5.8 (6) | 5.0 away |
| Seth Curry | Warriors | 8.7 (6) | 3.8 (5) | 4.9 at home |
| Damian Lillard | Trail Blazers | 17.8 (5) | 22.6 (7) | 4.8 away |
| Zach Edey | Grizzlies | 8.3 (10) | 13.0 (11) | 4.7 away |
Last five logged games against the full log, reported only where the gap is more than a tenth of the player’s own average. It is a description of five games that have been played and it is not a forecast of the sixth.
| Player | Club | Last 5 | Full log | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Ingles | Timberwolves | 5.8 points | 1.6 over 30 | 262% above |
| E.J. Liddell | Nets | 18.4 points | 5.7 over 26 | 225% above |
| Alijah Martin | Raptors | 10.8 points | 3.6 over 34 | 201% above |
| Rayan Rupert | 76ers | 14.4 points | 5.1 over 66 | 185% above |
| Jamison Battle | Raptors | 11.6 points | 4.3 over 79 | 172% above |
| Tyrese Proctor | Cavaliers | 14.8 points | 5.9 over 67 | 151% above |
| Rob Dillingham | Bulls | 15.8 points | 6.3 over 65 | 151% above |
| Chris Youngblood | Trail Blazers | 6.6 points | 2.7 over 40 | 147% above |
| Khaman Maluach | Suns | 8.4 points | 3.7 over 62 | 124% above |
| Lachlan Olbrich | Bulls | 5.2 points | 2.4 over 37 | 116% above |
The same comparison in the other direction, and the same caveat: five games is five games, and a run below a baseline is as often noise as it is a change.
| Player | Club | Last 5 | Full log | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cody Williams | Timberwolves | 0.0 points | 7.9 over 74 | 100% below |
| Jae'Sean Tate | Rockets | 0.0 points | 2.4 over 58 | 100% below |
| Amir Coffey | Suns | 0.0 points | 2.9 over 51 | 100% below |
| Javonte Cooke | Trail Blazers | 0.0 points | 1.2 over 19 | 100% below |
| TyTy Washington Jr. | Clippers | 0.0 points | 1.3 over 16 | 100% below |
| Caleb Love | 76ers | 0.4 points | 10.0 over 51 | 96% below |
| Moussa Cissé | Mavericks | 0.4 points | 4.0 over 46 | 90% below |
| Julian Reese | Pelicans | 1.2 points | 8.9 over 18 | 87% below |
| Max Christie | Mavericks | 1.6 points | 11.4 over 88 | 86% below |
| Jaden Hardy | Lakers | 1.2 points | 8.3 over 64 | 86% below |
At the half-point threshold each player has finished above in about half their logged games. It is measured per player from their own distribution rather than read off a sportsbook, which is why it is on this page at all: a posted line moves through the day and this page is rebuilt once, so a number taken from a book would be wrong by morning.
No. Nothing here is ordered by how good a bet it is, and no price is quoted anywhere on the page. The tables are ordered by sample depth, by spread and by the size of a measured gap, because those are the things a game log can actually establish.
The count is printed beside every one of them. A player only appears once they have ten or more logged games in the market, and games they did not play are absent rather than counted as zero, so an average describes games they were actually in.
No. A trend here is a comparison between a player’s last five logged games and their full log, and it is reported only when the gap is large enough to be worth naming. It is a description of what has happened, and history is not a forecast.
What these tables are measuring, explained: how to read a hit rate and what its denominator hides, what an over/under line is and what it is not.
NBA player props and live odds
Odds and lines come from licensed data feeds and refresh on a schedule; hit rates and grades are Parlay Builder’s own calculations.