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Across 506 NBA players with at least 10 logged games in points, this page measures 28181 games in total. The median player in that field averages 8.4 points. The line closest to a coin flip sits at 7.5 for the median of the 506 players whose distribution supports one — half the field is more often over it, half more often under. The deepest sample here is Julian Champagnie, with 105 logged games. Of the 503 players whose spread can be measured, 35 cluster tightly around their average, 239 vary moderately and 229 swing widely. 506 of them have at least three games home and away, so the venue gap below is measured rather than assumed. Every figure is counted from official box scores and describes games already played. It is not a projection, and on its own it says nothing about whether any price on offer is worth taking.
Each player's own most balanced threshold — the half-point line he has finished above in closest to half his logged games — measured from his distribution rather than read off a book. Deepest sample first, not best to worst. The 40 deepest samples of 506 measured; the figures above this table are over all 506.
| Player | Club | Logged games | Average | Balanced line | Hit rate there |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julian Champagnie | Spurs | 105 | 11.1 points | Over 10.5 | 53 of 105 (50%) |
| Keldon Johnson | Spurs | 105 | 12.0 points | Over 11.5 | 52 of 105 (50%) |
| Mikal Bridges | Knicks | 101 | 14.2 points | Over 14.5 | 47 of 101 (47%) |
| Harrison Barnes | Spurs | 97 | 8.4 points | Over 7.5 | 46 of 97 (47%) |
| Karl-Anthony Towns | Knicks | 94 | 19.2 points | Over 19.5 | 46 of 94 (49%) |
| Carter Bryant | Spurs | 93 | 3.8 points | Over 2.5 | 50 of 93 (54%) |
| De'Aaron Fox | Spurs | 93 | 17.9 points | Over 17.5 | 46 of 93 (49%) |
| Jalen Brunson | Knicks | 93 | 26.5 points | Over 27.5 | 46 of 93 (49%) |
| Javonte Green | Pistons | 93 | 6.4 points | Over 6.5 | 44 of 93 (47%) |
| Cason Wallace | Thunder | 92 | 8.6 points | Over 7.5 | 45 of 92 (49%) |
| Dylan Harper | Spurs | 92 | 12.4 points | Over 12.5 | 45 of 92 (49%) |
| Julius Randle | Timberwolves | 91 | 20.4 points | Over 19.5 | 43 of 91 (47%) |
| Luke Kornet | Spurs | 91 | 5.8 points | Over 5.5 | 45 of 91 (49%) |
| Stephon Castle | Spurs | 91 | 17.0 points | Over 16.5 | 48 of 91 (53%) |
| Devin Vassell | Spurs | 90 | 13.7 points | Over 13.5 | 44 of 90 (49%) |
| Duncan Robinson | Pistons | 90 | 12.1 points | Over 12.5 | 46 of 90 (51%) |
| Jake LaRavia | Lakers | 90 | 7.8 points | Over 6.5 | 40 of 90 (44%) |
| Jordan Clarkson | Knicks | 90 | 7.9 points | Over 7.5 | 48 of 90 (53%) |
| Desmond Bane | Magic | 89 | 19.9 points | Over 19.5 | 44 of 89 (49%) |
| Jamal Shead | Raptors | 89 | 6.8 points | Over 6.5 | 42 of 89 (47%) |
| Naz Reid | Timberwolves | 89 | 13.4 points | Over 12.5 | 46 of 89 (52%) |
| Bruce Brown | Nuggets | 88 | 7.8 points | Over 7.5 | 40 of 88 (45%) |
| Donovan Mitchell | Cavaliers | 88 | 27.5 points | Over 28.5 | 44 of 88 (50%) |
| James Harden | Cavaliers | 88 | 22.7 points | Over 21.5 | 43 of 88 (49%) |
| Luke Kennard | Lakers | 88 | 8.7 points | Over 8.5 | 44 of 88 (50%) |
| Reed Sheppard | Rockets | 88 | 13.4 points | Over 12.5 | 44 of 88 (50%) |
| Rudy Gobert | Timberwolves | 88 | 10.4 points | Over 9.5 | 48 of 88 (55%) |
| Ausar Thompson | Pistons | 87 | 9.6 points | Over 8.5 | 44 of 87 (51%) |
| Dennis Schröder | Cavaliers | 87 | 9.8 points | Over 8.5 | 42 of 87 (48%) |
| Jose Alvarado | Knicks | 87 | 6.7 points | Over 5.5 | 44 of 87 (51%) |
| Ronald Holland II | Pistons | 87 | 7.5 points | Over 7.5 | 43 of 87 (49%) |
| Sandro Mamukelashvili | Raptors | 87 | 10.7 points | Over 10.5 | 44 of 87 (51%) |
| Scottie Barnes | Raptors | 87 | 18.6 points | Over 17.5 | 44 of 87 (51%) |
| Toumani Camara | Trail Blazers | 87 | 13.0 points | Over 12.5 | 46 of 87 (53%) |
| Daniss Jenkins | Pistons | 86 | 9.3 points | Over 7.5 | 42 of 86 (49%) |
| Donte DiVincenzo | Timberwolves | 86 | 12.1 points | Over 11.5 | 45 of 86 (52%) |
| Oso Ighodaro | Suns | 86 | 6.5 points | Over 5.5 | 48 of 86 (56%) |
| Payton Pritchard | Celtics | 86 | 16.8 points | Over 16.5 | 41 of 86 (48%) |
| Quentin Grimes | 76ers | 86 | 12.6 points | Over 12.5 | 41 of 86 (48%) |
| Tim Hardaway Jr. | Nuggets | 86 | 13.3 points | Over 12.5 | 45 of 86 (52%) |
Standard deviation in the market’s own units, and the same figure as a share of the player’s average so it means the same thing in points as in passing yards. A narrow spread means the average is close to what a typical game actually looked like; it says nothing about what the next one will look like.
| Player | Club | Logged games | Average | Standard deviation | Spread as % of average |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jayson Tatum | Celtics | 22 | 22.2 points | 4.5 | 20% |
| Ty Jerome | Grizzlies | 15 | 19.7 points | 4.0 | 20% |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | Thunder | 83 | 30.5 points | 7.3 | 24% |
| Jaylen Brown | Celtics | 78 | 28.4 points | 7.4 | 26% |
| Kevin Durant | Rockets | 79 | 25.9 points | 6.7 | 26% |
| Kawhi Leonard | Clippers | 65 | 27.9 points | 7.3 | 26% |
| Pascal Siakam | Pacers | 62 | 24.0 points | 6.4 | 27% |
| Luka Dončić | Lakers | 64 | 33.5 points | 9.1 | 27% |
| RJ Barrett | Raptors | 64 | 19.8 points | 5.6 | 28% |
| Devin Booker | Suns | 68 | 25.8 points | 7.3 | 28% |
The other end of the same measurement. A wide spread means the average describes the middle of a broad range rather than a typical night, which is worth knowing before reading anything into that average.
| Player | Club | Logged games | Average | Standard deviation | Spread as % of average |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Ingles | Timberwolves | 30 | 1.6 points | 3.4 | 210% |
| TyTy Washington Jr. | Clippers | 16 | 1.3 points | 2.7 | 208% |
| Brooks Barnhizer | Thunder | 40 | 1.7 points | 3.2 | 189% |
| Hunter Tyson | Nuggets | 21 | 2.2 points | 3.8 | 173% |
| Nikola Topić | Thunder | 19 | 2.9 points | 5.0 | 169% |
| Johni Broome | 76ers | 13 | 1.3 points | 2.2 | 168% |
| Trey Jemison III | Knicks | 13 | 1.0 points | 1.7 | 166% |
| Kyle Lowry | 76ers | 16 | 1.1 points | 1.7 | 165% |
| Kevin McCullar Jr. | Knicks | 21 | 2.4 points | 3.9 | 163% |
| Pacôme Dadiet | Knicks | 36 | 1.9 points | 3.0 | 158% |
Both averages are over the games actually played at each venue, and the game count for each is in the cell beside it. A gap measured over a handful of games either way is one you cannot distinguish from noise — this table prints the denominators so you can tell which is which. Three games a side is the floor for appearing here at all.
| Player | Club | Home (games) | Away (games) | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nate Williams | Warriors | 12.4 (5) | 5.6 (9) | 6.8 at home |
| Dillon Brooks | Suns | 24.0 (29) | 17.4 (31) | 6.6 at home |
| Trae Young | Wizards | 20.8 (8) | 14.7 (7) | 6.1 at home |
| Zach Edey | Grizzlies | 10.0 (4) | 15.7 (7) | 5.7 away |
| Kawhi Leonard | Clippers | 30.4 (34) | 25.1 (31) | 5.3 at home |
| Elijah Harkless | Jazz | 9.6 (11) | 4.8 (15) | 4.8 at home |
| MarJon Beauchamp | 76ers | 4.4 (7) | 9.1 (7) | 4.7 away |
| Malachi Smith | Nets | 6.4 (9) | 11.0 (6) | 4.6 away |
| Leaky Black | Wizards | 10.3 (4) | 5.9 (11) | 4.4 at home |
| Scotty Pippen Jr. | Grizzlies | 8.3 (3) | 12.7 (7) | 4.4 away |
Last five logged games against the full log, reported only where the gap is more than a tenth of the player’s own average. It is a description of five games that have been played and it is not a forecast of the sixth.
| Player | Club | Last 5 | Full log | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Ingles | Timberwolves | 5.8 points | 1.6 over 30 | 262% above |
| Rayan Rupert | Grizzlies | 17.6 points | 5.2 over 64 | 239% above |
| E.J. Liddell | Nets | 18.4 points | 5.7 over 26 | 225% above |
| Jordan Hawkins | Pelicans | 15.8 points | 5.1 over 51 | 212% above |
| Rob Dillingham | Bulls | 15.8 points | 6.3 over 65 | 151% above |
| Micah Peavy | Pelicans | 10.8 points | 4.3 over 61 | 151% above |
| Branden Carlson | Thunder | 14.4 points | 5.8 over 42 | 150% above |
| Brooks Barnhizer | Thunder | 4.2 points | 1.7 over 40 | 147% above |
| Jericho Sims | Bucks | 12.2 points | 5.0 over 67 | 145% above |
| AJ Johnson | Mavericks | 8.0 points | 3.3 over 48 | 140% above |
The same comparison in the other direction, and the same caveat: five games is five games, and a run below a baseline is as often noise as it is a change.
| Player | Club | Last 5 | Full log | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noah Penda | Magic | 0.0 points | 3.8 over 60 | 100% below |
| Yang Hansen | Trail Blazers | 0.0 points | 2.0 over 47 | 100% below |
| Javonte Cooke | Trail Blazers | 0.0 points | 1.2 over 19 | 100% below |
| TyTy Washington Jr. | Clippers | 0.0 points | 1.3 over 16 | 100% below |
| Blake Wesley | Trail Blazers | 0.2 points | 4.3 over 35 | 95% below |
| Will Richard | Warriors | 0.4 points | 6.4 over 69 | 94% below |
| Luke Kornet | Spurs | 0.6 points | 5.8 over 91 | 90% below |
| Bones Hyland | Timberwolves | 0.8 points | 8.0 over 81 | 90% below |
| Craig Porter Jr. | Cavaliers | 0.4 points | 4.1 over 71 | 90% below |
| Vít Krejčí | Trail Blazers | 0.8 points | 8.0 over 69 | 90% below |
At the half-point threshold each player has finished above in about half their logged games. It is measured per player from their own distribution rather than read off a sportsbook, which is why it is on this page at all: a posted line moves through the day and this page is rebuilt once, so a number taken from a book would be wrong by morning.
No. Nothing here is ordered by how good a bet it is, and no price is quoted anywhere on the page. The tables are ordered by sample depth, by spread and by the size of a measured gap, because those are the things a game log can actually establish.
The count is printed beside every one of them. A player only appears once they have ten or more logged games in the market, and games they did not play are absent rather than counted as zero, so an average describes games they were actually in.
No. A trend here is a comparison between a player’s last five logged games and their full log, and it is reported only when the gap is large enough to be worth naming. It is a description of what has happened, and history is not a forecast.
What these tables are measuring, explained: how to read a hit rate and what its denominator hides, what an over/under line is and what it is not.
NBA player props and live odds
Odds and lines come from licensed data feeds and refresh on a schedule; hit rates, edges and grades are Parlay Builder’s own calculations.